2000 NBA Re-Draft

In my experience, it’s fun to go back to some draft in history and redo it using data from the players’ actual careers.  Who would have gone Number 2 in 2003 instead of Darko if we had known he’d be a bust?  Where would Kobe have landed if we realized he was a future mega-star?  This is always fun.  Today, I’ve decided to redo the 2000 Draft, regarded as one of the worst in NBA history.  I found Composite Scores for each draftee (and undrafted free agent Paul McPherson) through the 2008-09 season.  I will use this data, as well as the teams’ Win Shares data from the previous year, to assign my picks.  In my calculations, a player had to play in at least 500 minutes for his statistics to count.  When a pick in real life was traded after being drafted, it will be assumed that the trade still occurred.  This neutralizes the effects of a small sample size.  Future player judgments are based on Win Shares data only.  Please comment with your opinions.

(I apologize for not posting lately; it’s not that I’ve been busy, I just haven’t had anything to write about.  Sorry readers.  Yes, I’m apologizing to all six of them.  Sigh.)

  1. New Jersey SF Mike Miller Florida So.  Despite being a shooter, Miller has been amazingly underrated.  He flirted with averageness during his rookie contract years, but made the jump the following year and sustained a period of very good-ness (Composite Scores of .167, .138, .138 again, .168, and .162).  If New Jersey could have retained him after Restricted Free Agency (which they might have), this would have been a very solid pick.  Wins Produced is especially fond of him.
  2. Vancouver SG Michael Redd Ohio St. Jr.  In his rookie year, Redd only played 35 minutes.  However, he broke out in an amazing rookie(?) season and played fantastically throughout the remainder of his rookie contract.  A backcourt of Redd and Mike Bibby could have led the Grizzlies to success (and a longer stay in Canada).  Along with Shareef Abdur-Rahim, this team would have had a solid foundation.  If they could have kept it together, the Grizzlies would have good.  After all, they acquired Pau Gasol in a draft-day trade.
  3. Clippers SF Hedo Turkoglu Efes Pilsen (Turkey) 1979  The 1999-00 Clippers were terrible, with their only players of note being Lamar Odom, Eric Piatkowski (who actually was pretty decent), and Jeff McInnis (who was only above-average once).  The Clippers would have needed to pick the best player on the board.  Hedo Turkoglu is that player.  A frontcourt of Turkoglu and Odom would have been very effective with a defensive center around, too.  Although Jamaal Magloire is still on the board, he flamed out at the end of his rookie contract.  Turkoglu was solid for years, and his poor defensive reputation is somewhat unfounded.  Of course, the Clips organization probably would have botched this one.
  4. Chicago C Jamaal Magloire Kentucky Sr.  Magloire flamed out after his rookie contract.  However, he was a very solid player in his first four years, especially when compared to this draft.  In fact, he has the highest 4-Year Average Composite Score in the class.  He and Elton Brand would have been two very good big men over the life of their rookie contracts.  When Ron Artest (I mean Metta World Peace) and Magloire would break out the next year, this team would be scary, so long as Brand was still there.  However, that window would have been small; Magloire receded over the next two years.
  5. Orlando PF Eduardo Najera Oklahoma Sr.  When this guy has had a chance to play, he’s quietly been really good.  Orlando had lots of good young players the previous year: Ben Wallace, Matt Harpring, Corey Maggette, and Chuck Atkins.  All four of them were traded after the draft.  However, those four and Najera could carry a play-off team with a good bench.  In fact, it could be your starting line-up for a 50-win team a couple years down the road.  Hopefully, the Magic would not have messed up there.
  6. Atlanta SF Morris Peterson Michigan St. Sr.  This team had Jason Terry, Dikembe Mutombo, and not much else for the future.  However, with only one blip, Peterson was around average in each of his first eight seasons.  He could have been a dependable starter for a decent team until a better player would come along, in which case he would be a good sixth man.  As I said, this is regarded as one of the worst drafts in history.
  7. Chicago (to Cleveland) PF Mark Madsen Stanford Sr.  Andre Miller is the only player who had a really bright future ahead of him on this team.  Etan Thomas and Joel Pryzbilla are probably better picks, but Madsen produced in his first year, whereas Thomas didn’t even debut until the next year.  Most people only remember Madsen for his wacky dancing, but he was actually an okay player, especially during his rookie contract.  Still, this is a terrible draft.
  8. Cleveland (to Chicago) SG Quentin Richardson DePaul So.  Richardson with Ron Artest would make a solid wing combination for the Bulls.  Richardson’s first two years were decent, and he had a couple more good years after his rookie contract expired.  The Bulls would have a bright future here.
  9. Houston (to Milwaukee)  PF Stromile Swift LSU So.  Milwaukee had a great backcourt already with Ray Allen and Sam Cassell.  They had made the play-offs.  Now, it was time to start working on the frontcourt.  Stromile was actually a pretty good player over the life of his rookie deal.  As long as the Bucks remembered to let him go in Free Agency, this is a good pick.  I’m actually surprised that Swift is going this high, but he has the best rookie season of anyone still available.
  10. Orlando (to Clippers) C Joel Pryzbilla Minnesota So.  I’m going to assume this trade still happened, but that Corey Maggette wasn’t included.  When Pryzbilla gets a chance to play, he’s usually good.  He may have been rushed a bit if this actually occurred, but it probably wouldn’t have affected him that much.  He’s much better than the actual pick, Keyon Dooling, at this spot.  At this point, we’ll start to see players who didn’t start right away begin to come off the board.
  11. Boston PF Kenyon Martin Cincinnati Sr.  Paul Pierce and Tony Battie would need help, as Kenny Anderson had just had his last solid season.  It took Martin two years to develop, but he became a player who flirted with average after that.  Battie and Martin would have made a good, versatile front line, and this could have been a good team with more pieces.
  12. Dallas SF Darius Miles East St. Louis HS (IL)  This team had Steve Nash, Dirk, Michael Finley, and Shawn Bradley.  I’d imagine that this team should have had a win-now mentality.  Darius Miles’s two best seasons were his two first.  Finley could slide over to shooting guard, and this would be a decent starting line-up.  It would definitely be a play-off worthy line-up until Miles’s slide in Year 3.  Honestly, I can’t take Tskalidis or Voskuhl for a team like this with Miles still on the board, and I can’t see Dallas waiting two years for Marko Jaric.  All in all, this probably would have been their best pick.
  13. Orlando (to Dallas) SF Desmond Mason Oklahoma St. Sr.  Once Miles started to crumble, Dallas would need a replacement.  How about taking him with the next pick?  Mason was a solid player over his rookie contract who greatly declined after that.  Two years from Miles, then two years from Mason.  I think this is a good run, especially since Mason would be a more-than-capable back-up in Year 2.
  14. Detroit G Marko Jaric Paf Bologna (ITA) 1978  Grant Hill just had his last healthy season for a long time, Jerry Stackhouse stats fluctuate greatly, and Christian Laettner is the most consistent Piston for the future.  Jaric would come to the NBA in two years and become a decent player.  Jaric is by and large the best player still on the board, with only Speedy Claxton and Jake Tskalidis anywhere close to him throughout their rookie contracts.  Jaric is acutally a pretty good pick, though.
  15. Milwuakee (to Houston) PF Etan Thomas Syracuse Sr.  For a team with only Cuttino Mobley and Kenny Thomas having a bright future, this looks like a good pick.  Etan could always play center, and the Twin Thomases would have made a good frontcourt.  I like this pick; the only other possible option is Jamal Crawford.
  16. Sacramento PG Speedy Claxton Hofstra Sr.  Considering how good this team was, the Kings should have taken the best player available.  In real life, they took Hedo Turkoglu, arguably the best player in the entrie draft.  In this sim, they take Speedy Claxton.  Claxton is not the best player left, but he does fill a definitve need.  Remember, Mike Bibby’s still in Canada.  Although Bibby would be better, I still see the Kings having successful.
  17. Seattle C Jake Voskuhl Connecticut Sr.  The Sonics probably could have resigned Horace Grant to a one-year deal.  After he goes, center becomes a need, though.  Voskuhl could have been his replacement.  After a rookie year where he barely played, Voskuhl ran off three solid seasons, with his best one being the first.  Voskuhl could have been a good starter for the first two and a dependable back-up for the third.  Of course, learning under Grant might have made Voskuhl even better.  The Sonics already had  good guards, so they didn’t need Jamal Crawford.  That makes Voskuhl a good pick.
  18. Clippers SG Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr.  Finally, here is Jamal Crawford.  Originally, I had him at 8, but a few mistakes pushed him all the way down here.  The reason he is so low is that his first two years were terrible, and his next two weren’t great.  Even though he got better, he only has one above-average season in his first nine.  Of course the Clippers would take him here.  Still, he would make this team better.
  19. Charlotte SG Eddie House Arizona St. Sr.  Here is where we start to get into players who had only had a couple good seasons or who weren’t good for a long time.  House, the first of these, didn’t have a good year until Year 5.  However, drafting him gives Charlotte a jump on signing him.  Until then, he can shoot.  There are better players available, but the Hornets have good bigs and Baron Davis, which covers all of them.
  20. Philadelphia PF Donell Harvey Florida Fr.  The 76ers are another team that just needs to pick the best player available.  Harvey’s Years 2 and 3 are better than Taskalidis’s, and most of the “projects” don’t do well until Year 4.  Although Harvey’s Year 4 isn’t great at all, by then Philadelphia will have had three years to address the issue.  Besides, Philly’s weaker at the bigs and will be weaker there longer, negating advantages for Hart and Dooling.
  21. Toronto C Jake Tskalidis AEK (GRE) 1979  Toronto was solid at guard and on the wing with Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, and Doug Christie.  However, they needed bigs.  Tskalidis would be the best non-project big remaining, so he fills a needed to some degree.  Of course, Tskalidis is just a stopgap, but a stopgap is much better than nothing.
  22. New York (to Dallas) PG Jason Hart Syracuse Sr.  At this point, the Mavs can afford to draft a project player.  Hart is the best of those in the draft.  In Years 4-7, he has two above-average seasons and a .090 season.  If the Mavs were to give him a three-year extension, they would maximize his value and have a long-term back-up for Steve Nash and/or whoever’s playing shooting guard.  This is where the draft starts to get thin, though.
  23. Utah SG Paul McPherson DePaul Fr.  Jeff Hornacek just retired, so you need a replacement.  McPherson posted a .078 Composite Score before leaving the NBA.  On an aging team, McPherson provides a short-term solution, which is about all you can hope for in the next three years for anybody left in the draft, if that.  McPherson is the only player in this re-draft who actually went undrafted.
  24. Chicago PF Brian Cardinal Purdue Sr.  Another project, Cardinal has the best Year 4 of anyone left on the board.  He has been a solid player for years, and this pick would have longevity if he stayed a Bull beyond his rookie deal.
  25. Phoenix C Chris Mihm Texas Jr.  With a Year 4 Composite of .099, this pick would eventually ripen.  This Phoenix team was the last before Penny Hardaway and Cliff Robinson began their steep declines, so Phoenix needs to take a solid player.  Centers are hard to find, and Mihm gives his team three solid years before declining.  Resigning him to a two-year extension, then dumping him, would have been a good strategy.
  26. Denver SG Courtney Alexander Fresno St. Sr.  This Nuggets squad needed guards, and Alexander would provide a solid Year 2.  At this stage, teams have to settle for one decent season; Alexander would provide that.  The draft becomes thinner and thinner.
  27. Indiana PG Keyon Dooling Missouri So.  Considering the talent that’s left, it’s a good thing that this Pacer team didn’t needed an immediate replacement anywhere.  Dooling, who didn’t really blossom until Year 7, could back up Travis Best (and Mark Jackson if they could have resigned him) until he’s ready.  Looking back at history, that might take a while.  This selection leaves DeShawn Stevenson as the only player left with multiple good seasons.
  28. Portland PF Jerome Moiso UCLA So.  Moise had a superb sophomore year, with a Composite Score of .138, and no other seasons worth mentioning.  This takes the last above-average season off the board.
  29. Lakers C Primoz Brezec Union Olimpija (SLO) 1979  The Lakers could have stashed Brezec in Europe for a while and let him develop.  In real life, he had a good Year 5, a decent Year 6, and no other qualifying seasons above 0.  Of course, more time to develop and an apprenticeship under Shaq could have worked wonders.  We will never know.

This concludes my 2000 NBA Re-Draft.  You can view my data at 2000DraftSpreadsheet.  Players drafted in my first round have their names highlighted in red.  I would also like to list all of the 1st rounders who didn’t make it into this redo of history.  Here they are, with their actual landing spot in parentheses:

  1. PF Marcus Fizer Iowa St. Jr. (4-Chicago)
  2. SF DerMarr Johnson Cincinnati Fr. (6-Atlanta)
  3. PG Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. (14-Detroit)
  4. C Jason Collier Georgia Tech Sr. (15-Houston)
  5. SG DeShawn Stevenson Washington Union HS (CA) (23-Utah)
  6. C Dalibor Bagaric Benston Zagreb (CRO) 1980 (24-Chicago)
  7. C Mamadou N’Diaye Auburn Sr. (26-Denver)
  8. PG Erick Barkley St. John’s So. (28-Portland)

I would also like to note that Stromile Swift does not have Wins Produced data for his rookie season, which may have changed my final decisions one way or the other.  Hopefully, we will someday be able to insert this draft into a computer and see what (might) really have happened.  It sounds like a good idea, and I would be really excited to hear about a program of this nature.  Please comment with your own opinions.

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One thought on “2000 NBA Re-Draft

  1. After completing this, I learned that Malik Allen and Ime Udoka were both Undrafted Free Agents in this class. In all probability both of them would have been late picks, probably 22-24. I apologize for this error.

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