Another Study in Replacement Level

Last week, I used the average value of a win and the NBA’s rookie minimum salary to find the NBA’s Replacement Level.  Yesterday, I was trying to determine the monetary value of each player’s win contribution using Composite Score over 48 minutes rather than Composite Wins.  In other words, I was trying to find a player’s monetary value solely determinant on performance and not play time, while still using $1,700,000 per win as a benchmark.  I decided to determine value by having each win per 2,000 minutes (a good total for a starter) be equal to the $1,700,000 threshold.  I then found the number of 48-minute divisions out of 2,000, and divided 1 by that number to determine the value of the breaks I should use.

Guess what number I came up with.  Exactly .024 Wins Per 48 minutes.  I think I should take this as my first definite proof that .025 Wins Per 48 minutes is the replacement level in basketball.  (To see what I was trying to do clearly instead of in my jumbled-up language, view Values.  My “discovery” is off to one side.)


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