Few Pick the Trader Placard: Trade Analysis

This trade deadline was purported up to have several potential deadline deals, with Paul Millsap, Josh Smith, and Dwight Howard among the notable names.  You know a trading deadline was slow, though, when J.J. Redick is the biggest name actually dealt, whether you ask a stat geek, PER-fan, or the ultimate watch-the-games enthusiast.  I have no idea why.  Honestly, I think it would be in all of the teams’ best interests to have traded those players, even my beloved Lakers’ surrendering of D-12, considering that Al Jefferson, the weaker of the Jazz’s “star” bigs, was in little danger of meeting the moving van.  However, I think I will discuss some of the trades that did go down, and few trades make my job I heck of a lot easier!  Here goes nothing:  (Note that all analysis is based on Wins Produced and Win Shares, but that I will not be incessantly referencing statistics as I generally tend to.)

  • Orlando trades J.J. Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith to Milwaukee for Tobias Harris, Beno Udrih, and Doron Lamb.

Short-term win for the Bucks, but a long-term win for the Magic if Milwaukee cannot re-sign Redick.  From a strictly financial standpoint, this trade looks fairly even, but Redick is clearly the best player in the trade at present.  Over the long run, however, I think Harris will eclipse all of these players in value.  Udrih and Ayon are both solid players, and with Jameer Nelson’s recent injury, Udrih fills a fairly decent hole before coming off the books this summer.  However, I don’t think Ayon will see the floor a ton staring behind Samuel Dalembert, Larry Sanders, and maybe Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Mbah a Moute.  The hope in Wisconsin should be that Redick takes away minutes from Monta Ellis, but he could just as easily remove time from Wages of Wins friend Mike Dunleavy, Jr.  Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.  Smith and Lamb are both terrible and should be non-entities in their environments.

  • The Thunder ship Eric Maynor to Portland for a trade exception.

Maynor is not a good player, but neither are Ronnie Price or Nolan Smith, who were the incumbents behind Damian Lillard (Price has since been cut), so…fresh blood?  I wonder if OKC will actually use that trade exception.

  • The Knicks send Ronnie Brewer to the Thunder for a second-round pick, opening up a roster spot used to sign Kenyon Martin.

I honestly fail to see the necessity in this trade for either side.  Brewer, even after his shooting efficiency has gone down the tubes, is a solid player (although Win Shares is not huge on him), but then again, so are Kevin Martin and Thabo Sefolosha.  Brewer is well-regarded is a defender, but so is Sefolosha, and while Kevin Martin may be awful on D, they’re the same height and Sefolosha can actually shoot, albeit his assisted shot rate is astronomical.  On the flip side, New York is leaving their 2-guard position in the very capable hands of Jason Kidd…and J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert and James White.  Shumpert is young with room to grow, but he has not shown that he is as good as Brewer yet overall.  Kidd has been either outstanding or good, depending on which stat you use, but I don’t want to play a guy 30 minutes a game if he is closer to 40 than a 1-year old is close to birth.  Furthermore, White has never shown me anything other than some awesome dunks, and Smith is a ticking time bomb who insists on exploding at random intervals.  Besides, this is to free up a roster spot for Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire has been playing pretty good lately (remember my recent article?), and I thought small ball was supposed to be all the rage, right?  And while Kenyon Martin has never been terrible, he’s also never been as stellar as some have thought, and at this stage in his career I would almost rather have Melo playing the 4 even though his rebounding is stagnant no matter which position he plays.  Furthermore, the Knicks may have selected Landry Fields, but I have little faith in their scouting department; with the previous pick that year, the Knickerbockers selected Andy Rautins.  Who?  That’s what I thought.

  • Washington dumps Jordan Crawford on the Celtics in exchange for an injured Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collins.

Crawford actually hasn’t been awful this year.  However, Collins has, at least according to Wins Produced, and you’re never going to get anything out of Barbosa except for balance sheet relief because of a torn ACL.  Maybe the Celtics’ “veteran leadership” can keep the enigmatic Crawford in line, but, at the same time, maybe they won’t.  However, he is cheap, and Boston has had an interesting guard situation to say the least ever since Rondo went down.  I like this pick-up for Boston if only because they only gave up two useless expiring contracts to get him.  As for Washington, there’s a reason they’ve been consistent bottom-dwellers for the past few year, even if their atrocious play this season has been largely caused by injuries and slumps.  (Where did the heck did Kevin Seraphin go, oh by the way?)

  • Charlotte swaps Hakim Warrick for the Magic’s Josh McRoberts.

I thought that bad teams tanked.  This is not tanking, at least not for Charlotte.  McRoberts is a historically solid player, while Warrick has been rolling around in the muck ever since the lock-out.  Honestly, this is one of those non-trades that doesn’t look like it will make much of a difference for either of these terrible teams.

  • The Hawks’ Anthony Morrow goes to Dallas in exchange for Dahntay Jones.

I honestly wonder if this trade was made because the executives for both teams got bored.  I will say that Morrow is distinctly better than Jones and will ever-so-slightly help the Mavericks’ distant hope for a play-off run.  {Holds thumb and forefinger close together for emphasis on the ever-so-slightly part}

  • The Warriors send Charles Jenkins to Philadelphia for draft considerations (whatever that is) and Jeremy Tyler to Atlanta for the same…considerations.

I think Golden St. was just sending these players out so that Mark Jackson doesn’t accidentally play them.  (Although, to his credit, he hasn’t so far.)  What amazes me is that the Warriors might(?) have gotten something in return for these young scrubs.

  • Phoenix deports Sebastian Telfair to Toronto, receiving Hamed Haddadi and a second-round pick for their troubles.

Telfair has already been terrible, Haddadi has shown flashes, and Phoenix is guaranteed to botch that pick.  Of course, if I didn’t know any better, I would say that Colangelo is taking a psychotic approach to tanking.  On the other hand, maybe I don’t know better.  {Proceeds to ramble about philosophy and/or psychology to self}

  • Dexter Pittman and a second-round pick are sent to Memphis from Miami in exchange for the draft rights to Ricky Sanchez.

I remember that Sanchez’s rights got traded at the deadline last year, which is remarkable considering that the Puerto Rican center is currently playing in Argentina.  There must be something about him that only NBA teams can see.  I’ve got nothin’ on Pittman, and that pick is probably going to be wasted on some Euro who will never end up crossing the Atlantic for more than a vacation or two.

  • Houston acquires Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, and Tyler Honeycutt while surrendering Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, and Toney Douglas.  Houston also sends Marcus Morris to Phoenix in exchange for a second-round pick, creating an interesting family reunion in the process.

This one’s old news by now, but I’ll still cover it.  Robinson, if he works on his turnovers and shot selection, could be a solid player.  Houston saves some cap room next year, Sacramento saves some money this year.  Patterson’s solid, and I would call Robinson for Patterson a wash if not for Robinson’s good college projections and easy-to-find flaws.  Besides, Patterson’s second home is from mid-range.  Honeycutt hasn’t  received much play time, and Aldrich’s year performances are kind of random.  Douglas is awful, at least according to Wins Produced, and Garcia is okay and on an expiring contract.  While not necessarily the facepalm-inducing scam that some are making it out to be for the Maloofs’ team, I say Houston won the trade, but this is mostly a swap of young, currently mediocre players with the capacity to improve (with the exception of Garcia).  As for Morris, I really don’t know.  One should remember that the Morrises played next to each other in Kansas, and they had pretty good projections under Arturo’s model.  I don’t blame Phoenix for taking a risk, but this is an awfully strange risk to take.

I think I’m glad Atlanta didn’t trade J-Smoove because, from what I was hearing, they’d either get fleeced or would end up fleecing San Antonio, who I sort of root for because of their class and good grasp on analytic concepts.  Millsap…in the end, I wish Utah had lost a deal so that it would be easier for the Lakers to sneak into the postseason, but ah well.  And for Dwight, I just don’t know.  Anyway, thank you for reading, please comment, and please come back.

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