My Expansion Drafts

This is the fourth post in my five-part series concerning my Expansion Drafts thought experiment.  The final edition, where I discuss my strategies and the changes since the Bobcats actually drafted in 2004, will come after the draft.

Finally, I am going to complete the drafts themselves.  My Pool Lists are described over the last three posts.  The post before that, where I described what I would have done if I were Charlotte’s GM when they did their Expansion Draft, contains all the rules for the Expansion Draft as they were in 2004 and how I will assume they are for my purposes.  Before I continue, however, there are some players who have already declined their options for next season, or had them declined for them in the case of Team Options, and I need to account for those.  The following players were originally in my draft pools, but will be no longer.  If the player is now Protected because a previously Protected player will not be under contract for next season, the player who caused the new Protection will have his name in parentheses.

  • The League’s Pool: Ben Gordon, Kevin Jones (Marreese Speights), Bernard James (Shawn Marion and O.J. Mayo), Jordan Hamilton (Andre Iguodala), Draymond Green (Carl Landry), Francisco Garcia, Metta World Peace (Jodie Meeks), Tony Wroten (Jerryd Bayless), Mike Miller (Ray Allen), Rashard Lewis (Mario Chalmers), Gustavo Ayon (Monta Ellis), Derrick Williams (Dante Cunningham), Malcolm Lee (Andrei Kirilenko), James White (J.R. Smith), Hedo Turkoglu, Kwame Brown, Matt Bonner (Boris Diaw), John Lucas, Kevin Seraphin (Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor)
  • My Pool: Gordon, C.J. Miles (Speights), Jared Cunningham (Marion and Mayo), Iguodala, Green (Landry), Garcia, Peace (Meeks), Jon Leuer (Bayless), Miller (Allen), Jarvis Varnado (Chalmers), Ellis, Greg Stiemsma (Cunningham), Alexey Shved (Kirilenko), Carmelo Anthony (Smith), Turkoglu, Brown, Bonner (Diaw), DeMar DeRozan (Lucas), Seraphin (Ariza and Okafor)

I have also decided to replace Danny Granger with Ben Hansbrough in my recommended pool, and Ivan Johnson with Shelvin Mack in my “guess” pool, the latter because I noticed that there must be at least one Unprotected player under contract for the following season, and Johnson will be a Restricted Free Agent.

First, I will conduct the draft based on my recommended players, then one from my guesses.  There will be two teams: Seattle and St. Louis.  St. Louis will pick first, for two different reasons.  For one, the first spot would probably be decided by a coin flip, so it is equally likely that either team would go first.  Furthermore, if the league is at all rigged, the league will want Seattle to have more ping-pong balls in the draft, which would lead to St. Louis selecting first here.  Personally, I do not believe that the league is rigged, but who knows for sure?  The teams will alternate, and each team will select fifteen players, one from each team.  I should note both that: a) I am not necessarily trying to pick the best players first, as I am also weighing salary considerations and b) I have a tendency to fall prey to internal groupthink with myself.  The pools of available players can be found at ExpansionDraft2012-13Pools.  Players who are in my recommended draft pool, where I picked the Protected Players, are outlined in green, while those in the “guesses” pool, where I predict who the teams would actually leave available, are bolded.  Here we go:

Recommended Players Pool:

  1. St. Louis: SF Danilo Gallinari, Denver
  2. Seattle: PF David Lee, Golden St.
  3. St. Louis: SG Carlos Delfino, Houston
  4. Seattle: PG Patrick Mills, San Antonio
  5. St. Louis: SF Terrence Williams, Boston
  6. Seattle: PG Steve Blake, Lakers
  7. St. Louis: C Daniel Orton, Oklahoma City
  8. Seattle: C Jason Smith, New Orleans
  9. St. Louis: PF Jason Thompson, Sacramento
  10. Seattle: SF Alonzo Gee, Cleveland
  11. St. Louis: PG Lou Williams, Atlanta
  12. Seattle: SG Evan Turner, Philadelphia
  13. St. Louis: PF Luis Scola, Phoenix
  14. Seattle: C Ian Mahinmi, Indiana
  15. St. Louis: PG Norris Cole, Miami
  16. Seattle: SG Richard Hamilton, Chicago
  17. St. Louis: SF DeQuan Jones, Orlando (Restricted Free Agent)
  18. Seattle: PG Tony Wroten, Memphis
  19. St. Louis: SG Rodney Stuckey, Detroit
  20. Seattle: SF Sasha Pavlovic, Portland
  21. St. Louis: PF Nene, Washington
  22. Seattle: PF Derrick Williams, Minnesota
  23. St. Louis: PF Kris Joseph, Brooklyn
  24. Seattle: SG Kevin Murphy, Utah
  25. St. Louis: SG Josh Akognon, Dallas
  26. Seattle: PF Tyrus Thomas, Charlotte
  27. St. Louis: SF Caron Butler, Clippers
  28. Seattle: C Marcus Camby, New York
  29. St. Louis: PF Drew Gooden, Milwaukee
  30. Seattle: SF Linas Kleiza, Toronto

Now, for my “guess” pool:

  1. St. Louis: C JaVale McGee, Denver
  2. Seattle: SG Courtney Lee, Boston
  3. St. Louis: SF Lance Thomas, New Orleans
  4. Seattle: PG Steve Blake, Lakers
  5. St. Louis: SG Carlos Delfino, Houston
  6. Seattle: C Joel Anthony, Miami
  7. St. Louis: SF Austin Daye, Memphis (Restricted Free Agent)
  8. Seattle: PF Kris Humphries, Brooklyn
  9. St. Louis: PG Patrick Mills, San Antonio
  10. Seattle: C Hasheem Thabeet, Oklahoma City
  11. St. Louis: C Viacheslav Kravtsov, Detroit
  12. Seattle: SF Omri Casspi, Cleveland (Restricted Free Agent)
  13. St. Louis: SG Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento
  14. Seattle: SG Gerald Green, Indiana
  15. St. Louis: PG Shelvin Mack, Atlanta
  16. Seattle: C Jason Smith, New Orlean
  17. St. Louis: PF Jan Vesely, Washington
  18. Seattle: PG Diante Garrett, Phoenix (Restricted Free Agent)
  19. St. Louis: SF DeQuan Jones, Orlando (Restricted Free Agent)
  20. Seattle: PG Jerel McNeal, Utah
  21. St. Louis: PF Malcolm Thomas, Chicago
  22. Seattle: SG Josh Akognon, Dallas
  23. St. Louis: PG Charles Jenkins, Philadelphia (Restricted Free Agent)
  24. Seattle: C Aaron Gray, Toronto
  25. St. Louis: C Chris Johnson, Minnesota*
  26. Seattle: SF DaJuan Summers, Clippers
  27. St. Louis: PG Scott Machado, Golden St.
  28. Seattle: SF Victor Claver, Portland
  29. St. Louis: C Marcus Camby, New York
  30. Seattle: PF Tyrus Thomas, Charlotte

*Johnson should have gone much higher, but I forgot about him.  Oversights happen, I guess.

My analysis post should be up sometime soon after the draft.  Without spoiling too much, I can say that the draft was very brutal, and that the two teams would have lots of trouble competing in the near future.  Tomorrow, I will be posting my Mock Draft.  Thank you for reading, please comment, and please come back.

 

Edit: I’m sorry that this post never went up.  I think it is clear to see that these teams would be much weaker; I predict that the talent pool would be significantly more shallow because NBA front offices are becoming increasingly savvy.

 

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