Anticipating the Masters: A Foolhardy Exercise in Trying to Guess How the San Antonio Spurs Will Select in This Year’s NBA Draft

I absolutely love the NBA Draft.  It is one of the most frustrating and validating proving grounds for analytics.  There is inherent drama in seeing the risers and fallers.  As a fan, one gets to have unrealistic swaths of hope surrounding the future of the franchise (although I should note that I seldom experience this reaction anymore).

To some extent, it appears that the San Antonio Spurs have “figured out” the draft.  While there have been some stinkers (see Ryan Richards tanking for one of the worst teams in Greece, Marcus Denmon, a shooter, shooting 32.7% from range for a mediocre Turkish team, and Sergei Karaulov of the Russian second division), but the Spurs have plenty of rousing successes to compensate for these failures.  They have done this by exploiting the gaps in other teams’ knowledge and drafting internationals and savvy Americans who have fallen because of perceived faults.  Well, today, I am going to try to predict who the Spurs will draft with their first round selection, assuming that they do not trade up.  I should put emphasis on try; I never would have anticipated them selecting DeShaun Thomas with the 58th pick last year.  Using http://www.draftexpress.com as a guide, I will rank players in the order that I find likely that that player will be selected by the Spurs at a particular slot.  Ages are current as of the time of the post.  When I do best and worst case scenarios, note that I am casting a wider net than most people; do not be alarmed!

 

  • 1. SG Bogdan Bogdanovic 6’6″ 200 21 KK Partizan (Serbia)
  • NBA Comparison: I will steal Julien Rodger’s  assessment of him being similar to Joe Johnson (at asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com)
  • Best Case Scenario: Manu Ginobili
  • Worst Case Scenario: Daniel Hackett (First option on a mediocre Euroleague team or the second/third option on a good one)
  • Why the Spurs Might Pick Him: While Rodger may see him like Johnson, and I am in no position to disagree, I see him like Manu Ginobili with a mid-range game.  He is a very good slasher, a decent shooter, and has great scoring capability.  While shouldering the load on an extremely young, low-budget Partizan team, he averaged nearly 5 assists per 40 minutes pace-adjusted, which is doubly impressive when one considers that European scorers are much stingier in allotting assists than their NBA counterparts.  He also plays decent defense, and his efficiency is probably tempered somewhat by his high-usage role.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Pick Him: There might be some justifiable fear that Bogdanovic’s role this year may have taught him some bad habits as far as shot selection is concerned; he attempted a lot of suspect mid-range shots this season.  Furthermore, in Euroleague play his high assist totals were almost matched by a horrendous 4.4 Turnovers per 40 Minutes pace-adjusted.  And Bogdanovic is all but certainly set to be a superstar at the European level.
  • Then Again…: The mid-range issue is common practice from what I watched in the Euroleague playoffs this year; teams tend to bail out in the last seconds of the shot clock with their best shooter attempting a long pull-up, and this happens rather frequently.   Besides, Popovich has fixed these issues with far more hopeless cases and being a star in Europe did not stop Ginobili from coming across the ocean.

 

  •  2. PG/SG Vasilije Micic 6’6″ 202 20 Mega Vizura (Serbia)
  • NBA Comparison: Tony Parker
  • Best Case Scenario: Last Year’s Version of Goran Dragic
  • Worst Case Scenario: Thomas Heurtel (mid-level Euroleague point guard whose with high assist totals but shaky year-to-year shooting percentages)
  • Why the Spurs Might Pick Him: This guy is a lot like Tony Parker.  He has very good court vision to the tune of about 7 assists per 40 minutes, pace adjusted, and can get points for himself.  He also could spend some time in Europe.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Pick Him: His limitations are similar to Parker’s: high turnover rate and poor 3-point shooting.  Furthermore, he does not have the elite mid-range game that Parker does, and his numbers are somewhat skewed because of the Adriatic League’s weaker level of competition.
  • And then again…: This guy’s feel for the game fits in extremely well with the Spurs’ system.

 

  • 3. C Nikola Jokic 6’11” 253 19 Mega Vizura (Serbia)
  • NBA Comparison: Take the WABAC and call up Mehmet Okur
  • Best Case Scenario: Dirk
  • Worst Case Scenario: Erazem Lorbek (Lorbek is a stretch 4 whose rights were sent to Indiana in the George Hill trade and is the weakest starter for Barcelona, who made the Euroleague Final Four this year)
  • Why the Spurs Might Draft Him: This guy solves the problem of what happens when Boris Diaw lies out too long in the sun.  This guy is a decent shot blocker and rebounder, but he is also a fantastic scorer in possession three-point range and feel for the game, reflected in his 3 assists per 40 minutes, pace adjusted, in the Adriatic League.  He shot 63.6% from inside the arc in that same league, which is phenomenal when one considers that he is a jump shooter, meaning that either a) he is not shooting mid-range jumpers or b) he’s making a lot of the ones he takes!
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Draft Him: In the Adriatic League, Jokic shot 22.1% from deep.  Ouch.  He is also not a real post presence, although he is crafty, and not the most athletic man out there.  He is also pegged to go in the mid-second round, so the Spurs may see this as a reach and swap second-rounders with somebody else instead.  Furthermore, they may not be able to stash him in Europe; his agent, who owns his club, has other ideas.
  • And Then Again…: The Spurs can make his shot more consistent.  And since when have the Spurs cared about convention?

 

  • 4. SF Damien Inglis 6’8″ 240 19 Chorale Roanne (FRA)
  • NBA Comparison: Maurice Harkless
  • Best Case Scenario: Nicolas Batum
  • Worst Case Scenario: Carlos Suarez  (Long defender with a mediocre jumpshot and a definite size advantage against many/most match-ups)
  • Why the Spurs Might Pick Him: He and Kawhi Leonard would form an incredibly long, solid wing rotation for years to come which could lock down anyone in the league.  He is big enough and a good enough passer to take over the Boris Diaw role in the future, and he knows how to be a role player, as that was his job at Roanne.
  •  Why the Spurs Might Not Pick Him: He has a mediocre jumpshot, shooting only 72.4% from the foul line this year and only attempting approximately 1 3-pointer per game.  He also is not terribly explosive, only attempting about 1 free throw per game, and he was unable to take a big offensive role on a team that was relegated in France.  What is more, the Spurs essentially drafted the same guy last year, right down to the country of origin and shooting woes: Livio Jean-Charles, who plays for ASVEL, the French club owned by Tony Parker.
  • And then again…: The Spurs probably have the world’s best shooting coach, and Jean-Charles missed the entire French season with a knee injury.  What is more, the Spurs love their role players.

 

  • 5. SF K.J. McDaniels 6’6″ 196 21 Clemson
  • NBA Comparison: Corey Brewer
  • Best Case Scenario: Chandler Parsons
  • Worst Case Scenario: Ronnie Brewer at this stage in his career
  • Why the Spurs Might Draft Him: This guy is extremely skilled and versatile defensively, able to guard any perimeter position.  His athleticism gives lots of room for growth, he can block shots very well especially considering his size, is a fantastic offensive rebounder, and he is continuing to develop.  Despite his effort on defense, though, he seldom fouls.  The Spurs can continue to work with this guy.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Draft Him: His shooting is a problem; he only made 31% of his 3-point attempts this season.  This is a product of very shaky shot selection.  He is another guy who may be taken earlier than the Spurs will be able to draft him, and some of his block and rebound numbers may be fueled by playing bigger than he will in the NBA.
  • And then again…: Shooting is fixable with the Spurs, and McDaniels shot 84% from the charity stripe last season.  He also mocked at 29 according to Draft Express, so he will still probably be in play for the Spurs.

 

  • 6. C Walter Tavares 7’3″ 265 22 Gran Canaria (Spain)
  • NBA Comparison: A taller Samuel Dalembert
  • Best Case Scenario: What Hasheem Thabeet was supposed to be
  • Worst Case Scenario: A Shot-Blocking Giorgi Shermadini (aka a journeyman center in Europe who always plays well but can never stick with a team for long)
  • Why the Spurs Might Pick Him:Mobile 7-footers do not grow on trees, and Tavares has a few inches on that.  The Spanish ACB is the third-best league in the world, behind the NBA and Euroleague, and Tavares was extremely efficient and a great shot blocker and rebounder.  He also just signed a three-year extension with his club, which will both scare other teams off a little and give San Antonio an incentive to pick him and watch him grow.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Pick Him: He is incredibly raw; five or six years ago, he had never touched a basketball.  He is so efficient because he is strictly catch-and-finish, his passing is utterly non-existent, and  he has an unfortunate proclivity to commit fouls.  These limitations, as well as the lack of great explosiveness, seem to relegate him as a relic of a time quickly passing.  Furthermore, Tiago Splitter is currently ahead of him on the Spurs depth chart.
  • Then Again…: By the time Tavares’s contract expires, Splitter’s will have expired too, and  agile 7-footers do not grow on trees.

 

  • 7. SG Jordan Adams 6’5″ 209 19 UCLA
  • NBA Comparison: Paul George as a rookie? (This is very hard to do.)
  • Best Case Scenario: Manu Ginobili
  • Worst Case Scenario: James Anderson
  • Why the Spurs Might Draft Him: This guy could be the less-fun successor to Manu Ginobili.  He won’t whip passes halfway across the court, but he is very good around the rim, a solid shooter despite not getting many catch-and-shoot opportunities, a good passer, and he gets steals like nobody’s business-to the tune of 3.3 per 40 minutes pace adjusted, good for sixth-best in the nation.  This is another guy, like McDaniels and Inglis, who could create a defensive wing rotation for the ages with Kawhi.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Draft Him: He is currently No. 23 on Draft Express’s Mock Draft, and…and…I don’t know because the Spurs are not overly enamored with athleticism, which Adams does lack.  This guy is awesome; I could see the Spurs trading up for him.

 

  • 8. PF/C Mitch McGary 6’10” 263  22 Michigan
  • NBA Comparison: Anderson Varejao
  • Best Case Scenario: Varejao
  • Worst Case Scenario: Marreese Speights
  • Why the Spurs Might Pick Him: McGary is a fantastic rebounder, especially on the offensive end.  He also shoots for a very high percentage without being relegated to catch-and-finish opportunities.  He also has an incredibly high steal rate, especially for a big man, and showed something of a post game in very limited opportunities.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Pick Him: McGary applied for the draft after testing positive for marijuana usage and facing a year-long suspension.  He was also sidelined with a back injury for the vast majority of the season, and his foul rate rivals Tavares’s at about 5 per 40 minutes pace adjusted even though he faced clearly inferior competition.  Furthermore, none of he, Duncan, and Splitter are good shooters, which would limit his playing time unless Duncan retires.
  • And then again…: McGary does not have character issues; by his account, he got caught for a single mistake.  While there is certainly reason to be skeptical, this team also signed Stephen Jackson, and Pop should be able to keep him in line.

 

  • 9. PG Shabazz Napier 6’1″ 175 22 Connecticut
  • NBA Comparison: Damian Lillard (who I personally find to be somewhat overrated)
  • Best Case Scenario: What people think Lillard is/poor man’s Stephen Curry
  • Worst Case Scenario: Aaron Brooks
  • Why the Spurs Might Pick Him: I have a very bad good feeling (as in it is distasteful but likely) that Patty Mills will be gone next year and that Cory Joseph will not be able to replace him.  Shabazz Napier’s skillset is somewhat indicative of Mills’s in terms of shooting and scoring ability, capable but not always shown passing ability, and proclivity to rack up a solid number of steals.  He also is very team-oriented and seems to be a very good fit culturally.  While I hate the leader shtick, it certainly applies here, and Pop likes leaders.
  •  Why the Spurs Might Not Pick Him: There is a good chance that he will be gone by this point; Draft Express’s Mock Draft sees him going No. 24 to Charlotte.  Furthermore, Cory Joseph has shone flashes.
  • Then Again…: Joseph’s flashes are only flashes, and teams are not entirely fond of diminutive point guards or seniors.

 

  • 10. SF/PF Cleanthony Early 6’7″ 209 23 Wichita St.
  • NBA Comparison: Tobias Harris
  • Best Case Scenario: Ryan Anderson
  • Worst Case Scenario: Nicolo Melli (Mid-level European stretch 4)
  • Why the Spurs Might Draft Him: Early is a good shooter who can either be a big small forward or a stretch power forward.  He also fits into the team personality-wise.
  • Why the Spurs Might Not Draft Him: Early is the dreaded “tweener” stuck between the two forward positions, he is not an elite rebounder or passer, and he may have trouble defensively.  There is also the fear that his shooting will not translate as well, as he only shot 31.8% from downtown last year, especially scary considering Wichita St.’s relatively weak schedule.  (Edit: He also never passes–his assist rate is historically low.)
  • And Then Again…: His high usage at Wichita St. might be tempering his percentages, and he is not at that much of a disadvantage defensively.  Furthermore, they could simply plug him into a Matt Bonner role if it becomes too problematic.

 

Thank you for reading, please comment, please come back, and please let me gloat if the Spurs take Bogdanovic at 30.

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Hi, My Name Is Arsalan Kazemi, And I’m Really Good at Basketball

First off, I would like to apologize for the fact that it has been almost two months since I have blogged.  It’s not so much that I haven’t had much to write about, or that I’ve been extremely busy; really, I think I sort of burned myself out.  Anyway, I am just really excited to get this thing up and running again.  Here we go:

As much as I love examining the Wins Produced statistics of current NBA players, I am absolutely fascinated by those who have not yet made the NBA, even though it is harder to gauge their future productivity.  I think I see this mystery box as an interesting challenge.  At The Wages of Wins, the many talented analysts have to some degree debunked the rumor that players from small colleges should not be given auditions for the NBA because their strength of schedule pales in comparison to the BCS conferences and high mid-majors.  There are other players who are deemed strictly great college players, but who would not be able to make it in the NBA.  Today, I plan on trying to find a role for a player who has had both of these brands at varying times: senior Oregon power forward Arsalan Kazemi, formerly of Rice University.

Kazemi, who is from Esfahan, Iran, is the type of guy that Wins Produced adores.  Despite standing only 6’8″ and weighing 225 pounds, this guy is a very good rebounder and an efficient player overall.  His pace-adjusted Rebounds Per 40 Minutes numbers for each of his seasons in college are: 13.0, 15.1, 13.4 (at Rice), and 12.9 (at Oregon).  It is noteworthy, both now and later on, that in both of the past two seasons his team played at an above-average pace; his unadjusted numbers cluster more around 14.  He is also shot 59.4% and 59.5% in the last two seasons, respectively and has averaged 2.7 and 2.6 Steals Per 40 minutes pace-adjusted over the past two seasons, respectively.  In the same vein as the steals numbers, he has led his conference in Defensive Rating each of the past two years, and his rating this year of 83.0 was ninth-best in the country.  Of the players ahead of him, three went to Stephen F. Austin-including the interesting Taylor Smith-and two went to Savannah State, which are in truly weak conference; Gorgui Dieng is the only truly legitimiate prospect ahead of him in this category.  According to the numbers available at www.draftexpress.com, Kazemi has Old-Style Wins Score Per 40 Minutes averages of 13.4, 16.7, 17,7 (at Rice), and 17.1 (at Oregon). Over the past three seasons, only Kenneth Faried and Anthony Davis have produced higher averages in this statistic than Kazemi has.  Kazemi is just amazing.

However, that low usage that mentioned earlier really hurts Kazemi in scouts’ eyes.  While his Usage Rates were always at least average at Rice, he only used about 15.2% of Oregon’s possessions this year when he was on the floor.  This year, he also averaged fewer than 2 Turnovers and 2.4 Fouls Per 40 Minutes pace-adjusted, both definite decreases from his time at Rice; however, skeptics will say that this was probably because of his reduced role, and I would not disagree with them.  He is also not much of a shot blocker, never averaging more than 1.3 Per 40 pace-adjusted, and he only recorded 1.8 Assists Per 40 Minutes pace-adjusted this year.  Still, these are not so big of a deal as he plays power forward, and the assist rate was fifth of twenty-one among power forwards in Draft Express’s Top 100 Prospects list, where he ranks No. 86.

His Prospect Ranking implies that Kazemi will not be drafted.  The likelihood is even less when you consider the rate at which teams select “Project Euros” from picks 45 or 50 and beyond.  However, Kazemi is only a year older than the oldest of the “Project Euros”, and unlike many of them, he can obviously rebound the ball.  However, NBA teams will not draft him if they do not think he can fit in the NBA.

Reggie Evans was not a bad player in college, but he was certainly not an elite one.  In his pre-draft year of 2001-02, his old-style Win Score Per 40 Minutes was only 12.2, 24th among power forwards in the NCAA.  This year, that spot is filled by Oklahoma’s Romero Osby, a player who I doubt very many people outside of the state of Oklahoma consider to be draftworthy.  He only averaged 13.1 Rebounds Per 40 Minutes (pace adjustments are not available at Draft Express for 2001-02), while Kazemi averaged 13.8 Rebounds Per 40 Minutes this season.  Evans was twenty-two when he exited college; Kazemi turned twenty-three just last month.  Evans and Kazemi are both listed at 6’8″, although Evans is twenty-five pounds heavier.  In his rookie season, Evans averaged 13 Rebounds Per 40 Minutes for Seattle, and Wins Produced says that he averaged .216 Wins Per 48.   My point here is that Evans’s statistics in college were not indicative of greatness, but look at what he has become-a fan favorite for Wins Produced buffs are everywhere.  I am hoping that the Lakers will at least consider signing him this summer, especially if they lose Dwight Howard and/or Pau Gasol, if they have any desire to remain competitive because Evans would be so effective.  I honestly believe that Kazemi can be a similar player, and his college statistics are better than Evans’s.

Furthermore, one of the major knocks on Evans is that he is not a great basketball player; he just hustles.  Well, Kazemi’s Per 40 Minute statistics for this season are better than Evan’s in his senior year in every statistic except for fouling, and there there is only a difference of one foul every 100 minutes.  His Draft Express scouting report from February 1 also indicates that Kazemi has at least some athleticism, saying

“Kazemi has proven to be a fairly limited offensive player, relegated mostly to scoring off cuts, offensive rebounds and running the floor in transition.”
“Kazemi still moves incredibly well without the ball, showing excellent hands and solid leaping ability reigning in passes and finishing around the basket.At times, he also shows the ability to attack his man off the dribble in a straight line, though his ball-handling skills are fairly raw and he’s not the type of player who can be consistently asked to create offense for himself.  His active and aggressive style of play allows him to get to the free throw line at a pretty solid rate, though.”

“On defense, Kazemi still shows active hands, and solid awareness, which allow him to defend power forwards adequately at this levelHe does a good job of getting into passing lanes, as evidenced by his career high 3.0 steals per 40 minutes pace adjusted, which ranks him #1 amongst all power forwards in our database and is an accurate reflection of the excellent energy-level and anticipation skills he brings to the table. With that said, he still struggles to guard bigger and stronger post players due to his lack of size, but he nonetheless does a solid job of holding his own in the paint considering his physical limitations.”

“Guarding NBA small forwards may be challenging for him as he does not appear to possess great lateral quickness when defending the perimeter, even if he does a solid job of staying in plays even after he is beat.”

Players like Kenneth Faried (measured 6-6 without shoes), Thaddeus Young (6-5 ¾ without shoes), Chuck Hayes (6-5 1/2), DeJuan Blair (6-5 ¼), Jeff Adrien (6-5 ¼) and Jason Maxiell (6-5) see significant minutes in today’s NBA and are more than holding their own on the interior.”
These quotes all imply that while Kazemi may not be the most athletically gifted player ever, he appears a hard worker and a smart player, in addition to his other skills.  I honestly think that Arsalan Kazemi could serve as a more mobile, yet slightly less strong Reggie Evans-type player, especially for a team with a quicker tempo.  The fact that he is only twenty-three means that, while he is definitely old for a draft prospect, he is not too old to improve at least a little bit.  I definitely think that Kazemi is worth a second-round pick.  Thank you for reading, please comment, and please come back.

My NBA Draft Grades

Here, I will give my NBA Draft grades, based on all the analytics stuff that I have heard and who else the team could have feasibly drafted.  I’m sorry it took me so long; I was sick on Thursday, and I just wasn’t feeling it yesterday.  For many players, I will write a short explanation, but not all.  For international players, my default grade is a C+ unless I have more data.  Many of my grades are based on work done at http://wagesofwins.com.  Here wer go.

  1. New Orleans: PF Anthony Davis- A+  Davis was far and away the best player in the draft.  If New Orleans had not picked him, I think their front office would have lost a lot of credibility.
  2. Charlotte: SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist B  While Bradley Beal would have been a better choice, he’s much better than Harrison Barnes.
  3. Washington: SG Bradley Beal A  He and Davis are the only players picked by both of Arturo Galletti’s models who was a prospective Top 5 pick.
  4. Cleveland: SG Dion Waiters B  This grade may have been lower, but there was major indication that the Cavs were going to select Harrison Barnes.  Thomas Robinson and Damian Lillard are better picks, but Barnes is much worse.
  5. Sacramento: PF Thomas Robinson B+ He is a good player, but there are many who Arturo thinks will be better from this class.  Hopefully, he’ll supplant DeMarcus Cousins and not Jason Thompson
  6. Portland: PG Damian Lillard A  The Weber St. grad, picked by both models, is definitely  going to be an upgrade over Raymond Felton and Jonny Flynn.
  7. Golden St.: SF Harrison Barnes F  I was wondering which sucker would ultimately select Barnes.  Turns out it was the Warriors.
  8. Toronto: SG Terrence Ross C+  Jeremy Lamb would have been less of a reach and is projected by Arturo to be slightly better, but this is not a terrible pick.
  9. Detroit: C Andre Drummond D-  At least he’s slightly lower and slightly better than Barnes.
  10. New Orleans: SG Austin Rivers F  Arturo’s system has him better than Barnes, but I suspect that’s just because he’s younger-he was below-average in every statistical category!
  11. Portland: C Meyers Leonard F  That noise you just heard was the cry of a horrified Blazers fan.
  12. Houston: SG Jeremy Lamb B  Any truly analytically-minded team would have picked John Henson.
  13. Phoenix: PG Kendall Marshall C-  I guess it’s a bad sign when your stats are low and some of the “experts” are unsure if you’ll ever be even a back-up point guard.
  14. Milwaukee: PF John Henson A-  No other guy selected by Yogi or Booboo (Arturo’s draft projection systems) had a decent shot of being drafted this high after Jared Sullinger’s back problems.
  15. Philadelphia: SF Maurice Harkless C+  Jared Sullinger, anyone?
  16. Houston: PF Royce White B  At least they didn’t reach for Fab Melo.
  17. Dallas (traded to Cleveland): C Tyler Zeller B-  His age hurts his projections, but he had a very good senior season.
  18. Houston: PF Terrence Jones C+  Daryl Morey, you need to turn in your “Analytical GM” hat unless this is part of some weird ploy to get Dwight Howard.
  19. Orlando: PF Andrew Nicholson B+  The Magic actually made a really good pick.  I guess they’re trying to replace either Ryan Anderson or Dwight Howard.
  20. Denver: SG Evan Fournier F  I checked his Win Score stats from the French league, and he’s closer to the bottom of the rankings than the top.  Ouch.
  21. Boston: C Jared Sullinger A-  The minus is there because they’re at the point where it became feasible to draft either Jae Crowder or Will Barton.
  22. Boston: C Fab Melo F  This is just a terrible pick, especially considering how many good players were still on the board.
  23. Atlanta: SG John Jenkins C+  At least he doesn’t project to hover around 0 win production.
  24. Cleveland (traded to Dallas): SG Jared Cunningham C-  There are just so many players left who are better.  Besides, Mark Cuban commented on James Brocato’s overrated/underrated work!
  25. Memphis: PG Tony Wroten, Jr. F  Seriously.  Now, it’s unquestionable that the Grizzlies are better off being lucky rather than good.
  26. Indiana: PF Miles Plumlee C-  This pick could have been so much better-Drew Gordon/Draymond Green anyone?
  27. Miami (traded to Philadelphia): PF Arnett Moultrie C  Next verse, same as the first.
  28. Oklahoma City: PF Perry Jones III D  The only rationale I can see for an analytically-minded team for drafting this guy is for use as trade bait, and his rights remain with the Thunder!
  29. Chicago: PF Marquise Teague F  If you need a back-up point so badly, there are these guys named Sanders and Machado who went undrafted, while Will Barton would have helped fill a hole at shooting guard!
  30. Golden St.: C Festus Ezeli F  Arturo’s projection have Ezeli as the least productive NCAA player drafted.  What a waste of a value pick.
  31. Charlotte: SF Jeffrey Taylor F  Will Barton, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Drew Gordon, Scott Machado anyone?
  32. Washington: SG Tomas Satoransky D-  Same idea as Fournier.
  33. Cleveland (traded to Dallas): PF Bernard James D  I’ll give them some credit because James is a veteran in more than one sense-just not basketball-wise.
  34. Cleveland (traded to Dallas): SF Jae Crowder A++  Finally!
  35. Golden St.: PF Draymond Green A-  After a couple of terrible picks, the Warriors finally redeem themselves.  Maybe, just maybe, they have a future as a team.
  36. Sacramento (traded to Indiana): SG Orlando Johnson C-  If only that short run of great picks could have lasted.
  37. Toronto: PF Quincy Acy B  Surprisingly, the better Baylor Quincy is picked first.
  38. Denver: PF Quincy Miller C-  Two things: a) This has to be the first that two players with the same first name and the same school were picked back-to-back, and b) Did Denver fire the guys who picked Kenneth Faried last year?
  39. Detroit: SF Khris Middleton F  Joe Dumars strikes again!
  40. Portland: SF Will Barton A++  How the heck did he last this long?  Even the “experts” projected that he would go in the first round!
  41. Portland (traded to Brooklyn): PG Tyshawn Taylor F  I think Mikhail Prokhorov needs to learn more about running an NBA team as opposed to a Russian business conglomerate.  There are differences I’m sure.
  42. Milwaukee: SG Doron Lamb D+  Why can only Portland put together two solid draft picks?!
  43. Atlanta: PF Mike Scott C  Drew Gordon, Scott Machado, or Kevin Jones anyone?  Try your hand with William Mosley or Jesse Sanders?
  44. Detroit: SG Kim English C-  By Joe Dumars’s standards, this is a solid B.
  45. Philadelphia (traded to Miami): C Justin Hamilton F  Miami was a big-time sucker in this deal.  At least they get a future first-round pick, which promises to be higher than their own.
  46. New Orleans: SF Darius Miller F  It tells you a lot when Miller has the worst Arturo projection of any non-center drafted this year.
  47. Utah: SG Kevin Murphy F  Of course, Murphy’s not much better than Miller.
  48. New York: PF Kostas Papanikolaou B+  According to Win Score Per 40 Minutes at Draft Express, Kostas was the fourth-best player in the Greek League who played in at least ten games.  Good for them.
  49. Orlando: C Kyle O’Quinn B-  Arturo’s projections aren’t fond of him, but he has a higher unadjusted Win Score than both Jared Sullinger and Thomas Robinson.
  50. Denver: PF Izzet Turkyilmaz F  I’m taking Andre Alvarez’s word for it.  What happened to Denver’s war room?
  51. Boston: SF Kris Joseph F  I’m pretty positive that Arturo hates this pick.  As a Lakers fan, I love it!
  52. Golden St.: C Ognjen Kuzmic C+  Apparently, this guy didn’t really play much, so he gets my default Euro grade.
  53. Clippers (traded to Houston) PF Furkan Aldemir C+  DraftExpress doesn’t have Turkish stats, so here’s another default.
  54. Philadelphia (traded to Brooklyn): PF Tornike Shengelia D-  I’ll take Alvarez’s word again: DraftExpress doesn’t have Belgian stats either.
  55. Dallas (traded to Lakers): SG Darius Johnson-Odom F WHHHHHHHHHHHHY? Why, why, why, why, why?
  56. Toronto: SF Tomislav Zubcic C+  No Croatian stats or comment from Mr. Alvarez.
  57. Brooklyn: PF Ilkan Karaman C+ Next verse, same as the first.
  58. Minnesota: PF Robbie Hummel C-  Compared to some of the recent picks though, Hummel looks like a veritable Pau Gasol.  He’s not.
  59. San Antonio: SG Marcus Denmon A++  I should defect and become a Spurs fan right now.
  60. Lakers: C Robert Sacre F  I was practically despondent when the Lakers made this pick.  What about UCLA transfer Drew Gordon?  Or Kevin Jones?  Or Scott Machado?  Or even William Mosley?

My Mock-Up NBA Draft 2012

I have finally gotten around to doing my NBA mock draft at http://basketball.realgm.com.  However, I am calling it a Mock-Up Draft because I’m not trying to predict what will happen.  Instead, I am laying out the best course for teams within the general realm of possibility.   Here were my criteria for selecting players:

  • All picks must have been in Real GM’s top ten available list.
  • If there was a player recommended by either of Arturo Galletti’s draft projection systems, Yogi or Booboo, I automatically picked him.
  • If an NCAA player had slid more than ten spots based on Draft Express’s expected draft order, I selected him after meeting the previous criteria.
  • If neither of those two were met but there was an international player available, I took the international player.
  • After that, I based my picks off of the average of Yogi and Booboo’s calculations.
  • However, no team may pick three players who play the same position.

With all these criteria, there are going to be some wacky selections.  Again, this is a Mock-Up Draft, not a Mock Draft.  Here are the selections:

  1. New Orleans PF Anthony Davis, Kentucky
  2. Charlotte SG Bradley Beal, Florida
  3. Washington SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
  4. Cleveland C Jared Sullinger, Ohio St.
  5. Sacramento PF Thomas Robinson, Kansas
  6. Portland (from Brooklyn) PF John Henson, North Carolina
  7. Golden St. SF Terrence Jones, Kentucky
  8. Toronto PG Damian Lillard, Weber St.
  9. Detroit SG Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut
  10. New Orleans (from Minnesota via The Clippers) SF Terrence Ross, Washington
  11. Portland PF Royce White, Iowa St.
  12. Milwaukee C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
  13. Phoenix PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
  14. Houston PF Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi St.
  15. Philadelphia SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina
  16. Houston (from New York) SG Dion Waiters, Syracuse
  17. Dallas SF Moe Harkless, St. John’s
  18. Houston (from Utah via Minnesota) SG Orlando Johnson, UC-Santa Barbara
  19. Orlando C Andre Drummond, Connecticut
  20. Denver PF Draymond Green, Michigan St.
  21. Boston SG Austin Rivers, Duke
  22. Boston (from The Clippers via Oklahoma City) PF Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure
  23. Atlanta SG Evan Fournier, Poitiers Basket 86 (France)
  24. Cleveland (from The Lakers) C Meyers Leonard, Illinois
  25. Memphis SG Doron Lamb, Kentucky
  26. Indiana SG John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
  27. Miami SF Quincy Miller, Baylor
  28. Oklahoma City PF Kevin Jones, West Virginia
  29. Chicago SF Will Barton, Memphis
  30. Golden St. (from San Antonio) PF Drew Gordon, New Mexico
  31. Charlotte PF Perry Jones III, Baylor
  32. Washington SG Jared Cunningham, Oregon St.
  33. Cleveland SG Tomas Santoransky, Cajasol Banca Sivica (Spain)
  34. Cleveland (from New Orleans) SF Jae Crowder, Marquette
  35. Golden St. (from Brooklyn) C Fab Melo, Syracuse
  36. Sacramento PF Kostas Papanikolaou, Olympiakos (Greece)
  37. Toronto C Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt
  38. Denver (from Golden St. via New York) SF Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt
  39. Detroit PG Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas
  40. Portland (from Minnesota via Houston) PG Marquise Teague, Kentucky
  41. Portland PG Tony Wroten, Jr., Washington
  42. Milwaukee SF Tornike Shengelia, Belgacom Spirou Basket (Belgium)
  43. Atlanta (from Phoenix) PF Furkan Aldemir, Galatasaray (Turkey)
  44. Detroit PF Kyle O’Quinn, Norfolk St.
  45. Philadelphia PF Mike Scott, Virginia
  46. New Orleans (from Dallas via Washington) PG Scott Machado, Iona
  47. Utah SF Darius Miller, Kentucky
  48. New York SG Kim English, Missouri
  49. Orlando PF Bernard James, Florida St.
  50. Denver SG Nihad Djedovic, Galatasaray (Turkey)
  51. Boston PF Miles Plumlee, Duke
  52. Golden St. (from Atlanta) C Leon Radosevic, KK Cibona (Croatia)
  53. The Clippers C Dusan Cantekin, KK Mega Vizura (Serbia)
  54. Philadelphia (from Memphis) PG Tu Holloway, Xavier
  55. Dallas (from The Lakers) SG Marcus Denmon, Missouri
  56. Toronto (from Indiana) PF JaMychal Green, Alabama
  57. Brooklyn (from Miami) PG Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin
  58. Minnesota (from Oklahoma City) SG Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette
  59. San Antonio SF Kevin Murphy, Tennessee Tech
  60. The Lakers (from Chicago via Brooklyn and Milwaukee) C Ognjen Kuzmic, Unicaja Malaga (Spain)

Naturally, there are some weird picks.  For example, Harrison Barnes and Perry Jones III, among others, would have fallen too far if this were too have occurred.  Jesse Sanders, Ken Horton, and Ricardo Ratcliffe went undrafted despite being recommended by both Yogi and Booboo-Sanders and Horton were recommended by both.  But I guess that’s the draft.  Thank you for reading, and please comment.

The NBA Draft: The Age Paradox

This post was inspired by James Brocato’s latest post at the Wages of Wins, concerning Ricardo Ratcliffe’s draft prospects.  Consider the following question.  Your draft board is topped by two players, and you cannot decide which one to pick.  They may or may not be of the same position or exactly the same type of player statistically, but they have approximately the same value right now.  Their personalities are approximately the same, as are their injury histories.  Furthermore, their career paths do not project to be to significantly different, and they would fill similar immediate roles.    However, one of them is older than the other.  Which one do you pick?  Assume that all judgments have been made based on careful statistical analysis.

Both choices have their obvious drawbacks.  The older player’s value is more of a known commodity, whereas the younger player may blossom beyond expectations.  On the other hand, either one of them could end up as a complete bust.  Which do you pick?

Well, let’s make it more specific.  Let’s say that they are both centers, but one is twenty-three and the other is twenty-one, and their statistics are the same.  Most people, using the conventional school of thought, will take the younger player.  However, in this instance, I would take the first player.

Let me explain why.  The first player is a known commodity.  He has almost began his peak, at age twenty-three.  Even though he would command a higher salary in Restricted Free Agency based on past performance, there would also be more peak years where he is under team control under the low(er) salary of his rookie deal.  Assuming that the peak covers ages 24-29, there are three peak seasons instead of one.

I understand that there are arguments to take the second player.  He is younger, so therefore he will probably have more trade value.  Granted, that is true in all likelihood.  However, acquiring players simply for use as trade assets is not necessarily a feasible strategy, at least not on a large-scale.  (Of course, that might be a strategy for a savvy, stats-oriented GM prior to a Moneyball moment where analytics use becomes mainstream, but let’s assume that we’re not using this strategy.)  Another point is that older players get more injuries.  However, the age difference would be slight, and I have not read a definitive, scientific article proving or disproving this.  So that is where I stand.

Of course, this is not a one-size-fits-all proposition.  If the age gap is more than three years, I would be more inclined to pick the younger player.  If the older player is older than twenty-three, I will take the younger player because the older player is likely to peak in his rookie year.  If one players plays center or point guard and the other does not, I will automatically pick the center or point guard, regardless of age, unless either a) the center or point guard is older than twenty-three, in which case I pick the other player or b) I don’t expect much from either player, in which case the decision is extremely tough.  I think that I may revisit this paradox in the future.  Thank you for reading; please comment with your opinions.

2003 NBA Re-Draft

This is the fourth installment in my NBA Re-Drafts series.  Today, I will cover the 2003 Draft which gave us LeBron, D-Wade, Chris Bosh, Melo, and others.  Others include busts Darko Milicic , Michael Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes and (surprise!) Chris Kaman.  (I’ll probably talk about Kaman late in the draft.)   I will still use Composite Score as my data point for player evaluation, but I have decreased my minutes requirement to 250 so that I would have more accurate results for certain players.  I will still evaluate team need the same way.  My data can be found at 2003DraftSpreadsheet.  Here we go:

  1. Cleveland SF LeBron James St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)  LeBron is indisputably the best player in this draft.  He is probably the best player of the past decade, except for maybe Shaq or Tim Duncan.  His rookie seaon is his only one where he did not record a Composite Score exceeding .200.  Like Yao last year, I didn’t bother to check the Cavs’ 2002-03 roster because he has been so amazing, even considering his lack of “clutch” ability (which is overrated, anyway).
  2. Detroit SG Dwyane Wade Marquette Jr.  Before I became involved in the analytics movement, I would have slotted Chris Bosh here, no questions asked.  However, there are two reasons why I did not do this.  For one, Mehmet Okur was never a slouch until the last couple years.  He and Ben Wallace were a pretty good frontcourt even before the trade for Rasheed.  Second of all, Rip Hamilton is overrated.  Hamilton’s not terrible, but his scoring efficiency is very average and he isn’t a great rebounder for his position.  Wade or Rip could serve as a Sixth Man in 03-04, while Dwyane would take over in Year 2.  With this pick, the Pistons would have been almost unbeatable.
  3. Denver PG Jose Calderon Tau Cermaica (ESP) 1981  Somehow, Calderon went undrafted in reality even though he was automatically eligible.  The 2002-03 Nuggets had the sub-zero Junior Harrington as its starting point guard.  I don’t think they would mind waiting a couple of years for this fantastic point guard, well-known for his high assist totals.  I would have selected Bosh here, but this team already had Marcus Camby and Nene, and Bosh would not have been much of an improvement over the Brazilian.
  4. Toronto PF Chris Bosh Georgia Tech Fr.  Since he is unquestionably the best player remaining, the only players in his neighborhood play the same position, and he was the actual selection at this spot, I will go with Bosh almost by default.  Although he is not a star on the level of teammates James and Wade, he is still a star and has been for a long time.  As an efficient scorer who can block shots and doesn’t foul too much, he is a great value at the 4 selection.  He also gives them some life for the aftermath of the Vince Carter debacle.
  5. Miami PF David West Xavier Sr.  Besides Eddie Jones, this Heat team didn’t have much to go on for the future.  In real life, they took Dwyane Wade.  In this scenario, Flash is long gone.  Although somewhat overrated because of his scoring totals, West has still been a serviceable starter who will block shots and definitely not kill you.  (Note that Wins Produced only credits him with four average seasons, including a rookie year where he was a star…in less than 1,000 minutes of action.)  Other targets include Matt Bonner and Nick Collison.
  6. Clippers PG Kirk Hinrich Kansas Sr.  During the course of his rookie contract, Hinrich was a pretty good starter, but he declined earlier than players ahead of him.  However, this team already had Elton Brand and Corey Maggette (who isn’t as overrated as you would think), and Andre Miller was leaving in free agency.  Hinrich has a better 4-Year average than anyone in this draft not currently being paid like a superstar to play for Miami, or Josh Howard (who also had an early decline).  Because of his early success, he probably is a better selection than Bonner, Collison, Kyle Korver, and Melo (those available with higher 9-year averages).  This is not as much of a reach as I first though; in fact, I don’t think it’s a reach at all.
  7. Chicago SF Josh Howard Wake Forest Jr.  Like the 2002 Draft, the 2003 draft was short on solid guards (although it did have two elite ones in Wade and Calderon).  Chicago already had Tyson Chandler and Donyell Marshall (who was pretty good), which eliminates a couple of candidates.  However, at small forward they had Eddie Robinson (who?) and Jalen Rose (who was turnover-prone and steal-averse).  However came off to a flying start in his five years before sinking into obscurity.  A frontline of Howard, Marshall, and Chandler (all last names that can be used as first names) would have been really good for a couple of years.  However, the Bulls would not want to overpay for his Restricted Free Agency deal.  Until then though, Howard was really good.
  8. Milwaukee SF Carmelo Anthony Syracuse Fr.  With Michael Redd and Sam Cassell (who in reality they traded the very next day), the Bucks had some good guards.  At this point in the draft, that’s a good thing.  Their bigs were less inspiring but still capable, with Joel Pryzbilla (terrible at the time), Dan Gadzuric (had a couple of inspired years but not a whole ton else), and an aging Ervin Johnson (who would be packaged in the Cassell deal).  That leaves small forward, where they had an okay Desmond Mason and a retiring Anthony Mason.  (I guess they did a lot of stone cutting in Milwaukee.)  So that makes it a toss-up between Melo and Kyle Korver.  Both of them have had their seasons, but neither was consistently good until Year 7 or so.  At least with Melo, you have a high trade value.  I was hoping I could have Melo farther down, but oh well.
  9. New York PF Nick Collison Kansas Sr.  This Knicks team was so old that only Charlie Ward and Clarence Weatherspoon had decent 03-04 seasons, and neither one of them had a good 04-05.  That means the Knicks are looking for the best player they can find.  In real life, they “found” Michael Sweetney (which wasn’t as bad as you would think, but it still wasn’t great.)  Collison missed 03-04 with injuries to both shoulders, but he has been a solid player ever since.  He has had only one below-average season, a Year 3 where he still posted a respectable .078.  He is also well-known for taking charges, which is a good thing.  Other possibilities include Matt Bonner, Kyle Korver, Marquis Daniels, Luke Walton, and (prepare to be amazed) James Singleton.  (P.S. While we were playing a game of Strat-o-Matic together, my dad christened him Nick Collision.  This was before either of us knew of us charge-taking prowess.)
  10. Washington SF Marquis Daniels Auburn Sr.  Christian Laettner, Brendan Haywood, and Etan Thomas provided a solid rotation of big men.  However, between Jerry Stackhouse and Tyronn Lue and Larry Hughes’s overrated-ness and MJ’s final retirement, they had a shortage of wings and guards.  Daniels’s first three years are among the best of the draft, but then he goes through a steep decline, in part because of lowering assist totals.  Other possibilities include Luke Ridnour, James Jones, and Carlos Delfino.
  11. Golden St. PF Matt Bonner Florida Sr.  Bonner spent a harrowing season in Italy (look at his Wikipedia page) before becoming a solid player in the NBA.  For a team with only Erick Dampier being a dependable player, Bonner would definitely be a serviceable starter.  Hopefully, the Warriors would have better luck extending Bonner than they did with Gilbert Arenas.
  12. Seattle C Kendrick Perkins Ozen HS (TX)  Having traded upcoming free agent Gary Payton to Milwaukee and Predrag Drobnjak as its starting center, this team was in the market for a replacement at the two most important positions.  Perkins is the best of those player remaining.  It took him a little time to develop into a solid starter, but judging that he’s a high school selection, this is unsurprising.  A couple of years in Europe could have helped, admittedly, but almost any production would be more than they got out of Drobnjak.  This guy would definitely be worth a Restricted Free Agency deal.
  13. Memphis (traded to Boston) PF James Singleton Murray St. Sr.  Wait, what?  James Singleton?  He of 243 career games!  Well, yes, I’ll tell you why.  Singleton is an extraordinary rebounder, racks up blocks and steals well for his position, and has been extraordinary throughout his career whenever he has gotten his shot.  Even though he spent two years in Italy before coming to the NBA, he is still selected here because there is a shortage of immediate help.  Furthermore, that is reduced even more when you consider that Boston’s one good player for the future was Paul Pierce, a small forward who can technically play either wing position.  It’s a shame that Singleton didn’t get a chance to play more; I’m sure he would have take advantage of it.
  14. Seattle PG Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr.  This one of the few picks that is actually the same as it was in real life.  As I mentioned before, Seattle needed a point guard.  With Kenny Anderson and Kevin Ollie leaving in free agency, they didn’t have any left on the roster.  Ridnour has had some good seasons, particularly recently, and okay is better than bad is better than terrible.  It’s too bad Leandro Barbosa can’t play point guard.
  15. Orlando PF Michael Sweetney Georgetown Jr.  This was a hard pick since Orlando need right away, but there isn’t much immediate help left.  Sweetney had a couple of good years (albeit in limited time) before fading into obscurity.  This guy had ability; he just didn’t put it all together, apparently.  This is definitely a reach, but the Magic would finish with the league’s worst record in 2003-04, so the right-now precludes the later.  They want to make the most of T-Mac, especially since he was to start his decline.
  16. Boston (traded to Memphis) C Zaza Pachulia Ulkerspor (TUR) 1984  This team was headed by Pau, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller, and Jason Williams has pretty good.  Pachulia was a young player that the Grizzlies could afford to stash in Europe for a year.  (Zaza’s rookie year was abysmal with a Composite Score of .006, but he improved.)  They could sign him to a restricted deal on the cheap as his Year 5 was pretty bad, and then reap the benefits of four consecutive above-average seasons.  This will soon become a familiar tale.
  17. Phoenix SG Leandro Barbosa Bauru Tilibra (BRA) 1982  Barbosa may be a little overrated, but he was still a good player for his first six seasons.  Because of a trade with San Antonio, The Brazilian Blur ended up with the Suns anyway, and it was a great fit.  However, the Suns would to be careful and only extend him for two years before he hits his decline.  (His would be marked by declining rebounding, assists, and scoring efficiency.)  Besides, isn’t Leandro Barbosa just a fun name to say?
  18. New Orleans SF James Jones Miami (FL) Sr.  George Lynch and P.J. Brown were good forwards, but they were declining quickly.  Why not replace one of them in this draft?  Jones is a somewhat efficient scorer who almost never turns the ball over.  Part of this may be due to his role as a shooter, but he has averaged less than one turnover per 48 minutes four times!  He also has value under his second contract.
  19. Utah PF Boris Diaw Pau-Orthez (FRA) 1982  With Stockton’s retirement and Malone leaving as a free agent, the Jazz have come to the end of an era.  While Andrei Kirilenko and Matt Harpring are solid forwards and Greg Ostertag is a solid center (Kirilenko being more than solid), the roster is a bit thin.  Enter Diaw.  Although not amazing, he is a solid role player who could the job done at either forward or (if he really had to) the center position.  In a re-draft like this, what more could one expect from pick 19?
  20. Boston (traded to Memphis) SF Luke Walton Arizona Sr.  At one point, Walton was my favorite player.  His career started out well before being derailed by injuries.  While some of this skill level may have been caused by his perfect match for the triangle offense, the system does not make the player.  He could have backed up Battier well for four or five years before fading into obscurity.
  21. Atlanta SF Carlos Delfino Skipper Bologna (ITA) 1982  This Hawks team had Jason Terry and Nazr Mohammed, but their other good players were starting to age.  Delfino spent an extra year in Italy, after which he could have replaced Shareef Abdur-Rahim.  He has been a solid player throughout his career and a good choice at No. 21.
  22. New Jersey SG Mickael Pietrus Pau-Orthez (FRA) 1982  The Nets were a good team who could afford to pick just the best player available, regardless of position.  Although there were certainly other players who could have been selected here, I decided on Pietrus.  Pietrus may be a shooter who doesn’t shoot that great, but he is a solid player who I wouldn’t mind having on my team-most years.
  23. Portland SG Keith Bogans Kentucky Sr.  Because of its aging roster, Portland is another team that should have drafted the best player available.  He may have had his ups and downs and been a bit of a late bloomer, but Keith Bogans became a good player.  Of course, the team that drafted him should have made sure that he stayed off the court in Year 2, but other than that he was a solid player.  He was definitely worth resigning.
  24. Lakers PF Brian Cook Illinois Sr.  Another one of the rare re-draft/real life matches.  The 02-03 Lakers squad was Shaq, Kobe, Horry, and little else, and Horry left for San Antonio after the season.  Cook is the only player remaining with an above-average rookie season.  His Year 3 was also good, but the rest of his career was not.  Therefore, he could be easily jettisoned at the end of his rookie deal.
  25. Detroit PG T.J. Ford Texas So.  Although injury-prone and a late-ish bloomer, Ford is a solid pick.  Hopefully, Detroit would able to resign him to a two-year deal to maximize the value of this pick.
  26. Minnesota PG Steve Blake Maryland Sr.  At this point, no matter how a team is organized, you need to pick the best player available.  Blake could have benefitted from a couple of years overseas, but he was a solid starter for several years.  Besides, good is better than bad, which is better than terrible.
  27. Memphis (traded to Boston) SG Quinton Ross SMU Sr.  Ross was a decent role player for several years, and there are few remaining who could eclipse his Year 4 Composite Score of .099 (only Chris Kaman’s Year 3, Kaman’s Year 5, and Ronald Dupree’s Year 2).  He was a solid rebounder and defensive player, and that’s much of what can be expected any more.
  28. San Antonio (traded to Phoenix) PG Mo Williams Alabama So.  I’m guessing that many of you are surprised that Williams fell so far.  Well, Williams only had an average number of Points Per Shot for three seasons, which are also his only seasons in which he recorded a Composite Score above .060.  He is also slightly more turnover-prone than average without being an exceptional assister, a bad combination.  I’m not saying that I wouldn’t touch Williams with a ten-foot pole (although you could say that for Years 1 and 8), I’m simply saying that there are alternatives.  Like Quinton Ross.
  29. Dallas C Chris Kaman Central Michigan Jr.  I’d bet you’re even more surprised that Kaman fell all the way down here.  However, he is turnover-prone and an inefficient scorer.  In his first two seasons, he was a below-average rebounder as well.  Kaman has a pair of good seasons surrounded by mediocre, terrible, and sub-zero campaigns.  Ouch.

As always, here I will type all of the first-rounders who did not make my re-draft.  They were:

  1. PF Darko Milicic KK Hemofarm (SRB) 1985 (2-Detroit)
  2. SF Jarvis Hayes Georgia Jr. (10-Washington)
  3. PG Marcus Banks UNLV Sr. (13-Memphis-Boston)
  4. SF Reece Gaines Louisville Sr. (15-Orlando)
  5. PG Troy Bell Boston College Sr. (16-Boston-Memphis)
  6. SF Zarko Cabarkapa Budcnost Podgorica (SRB) 1981 (17-Phoenix)
  7. SF Sasha Pavlovic Budcnost Podgorica (SRB) 1983 (19-Utah)
  8. SG Dahntay Jones Duke Sr. (20-Boston-Memphis)
  9. SG Zoran Planinic Cibona Zagreb (CRO) 1982 (22-New Jersey)
  10. SF Travis Outlaw Starkville HS (MS) (23-Portland)
  11. SF Ndubi Ebi Westbury Christian HS (TX) (26-Minnesota)

Apparently, the only solid player that came out of that Boston-Memphis trade was Kendrick Perkins!  Remember, this is not meant to end discussions; it’s meant to start them.  Please comment with your opinions or any qualifying undrafted free agents that I have missed.  Thanks for reading.

2002 NBA Re-Draft

This is my latest installment in my NBA Re-Drafts series.  As always, I will use Composite Score (my average of Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes and Win Shares Per 48 Minutes) for all seasons in which the player played 500 minutes.  My team judgments are based on my looking at both Win Shares and Wins Produced without combining them into Composite Score.  My data is available at 2002DraftSpreadsheet.  If I have forgotten any undrafted players who had at least one qualifying season, please comment.  (I haven’t gone through one where I haven’t-yet.)  Here it is:

  1. Houston C Yao Ming Shanghai Sharks (CHN) 1980  Even though Yao’s career was cut short by injuries, I selected this pick without even looking at the Rockets’ roster.  There are some reasons for that.  For one, Yao has the second-best 9-Year Composite Average, behind only Carlos Boozer, of any player in this draft despite playing only 94 minutes in Years 8 and 9.  This draft might not be the greatest, but that’s still pretty amazing.  His Year 4 is the best single season of anyone not named Boozer or Amare.  He was a franchise center.  He is 7’6″.  In all seriousness, there is no way you can possibly consider anyone else by any means, conventional or analytic.  You just can’t.
  2. Chicago PF Amare Stoudemire Cypress Creek HS (FL)  I really swung back and forth between Boozer and Amare, but in the end I chose Amare.  Even considering how obscenely underrated Reggie Evans, no one else was even in the discussion.  My rationale for picking Amare was that even though he had major injuries and an earlier, more precipitous decline, his best seasons were better, and his injury would allow his current team to pay less in Restricted Free Agency because it occurred during his contract year.  With Tyson Chandler already there, this would have been an amazing dynamic duo (offense-defense and all).
  3. Golden St. PF Carlos Boozer Duke Jr.  The best player in the draft, according to Composite Score, goes third in the draft.  I’ve already explained why.  This Warriors squad needed a player who could come in right away because Gilbert Arenas was walking the next year.  They have Antwan Jamison, but he’s overrated, and Boozer can play the center if he has to.  (Note that this is when Erick Dampier was average, before he actually became a really good player.  Furthermore, the NBA Geek lists Jamison as a small forward in 2001-02.)  Besides, only Yao, Reggie Evans, and Dan Gadzuric have 4-Year Averages within 30% of Boozer’s.  (Yes, Gadzuric was really good for a couple of years, too.)
  4. Memphis C Nene Hilario Vasco da Gama (BRA) 1982  Having Pau Gasol and Shane Battier already, this is a terrible draft for the Grizzlies.  The best guards in this draft are John Salmons, Devin Brown, and Fred Jones (the latter two of which are better than originally thought but were not consistently amazing).  So, Memphis gets to improve at the center position.  Although Stromile Swift wasn’t terrible, he wasn’t that great either (rarely better than average), and Nene is definitely an improvement.  Of course, you have a major, major knee injury and testicular cancer (seriously?) thrown in there, but he really only lost two seasons.  The alternatives are reaching for Dan Gadzuric and hoping that Tayshaun Prince or Mike Dunleavy can play shooting guard as well as they play small forward.  (I’m not too sure about the former.)
  5. Denver PF Reggie Evans Iowa Sr.  Between trades and Antonio McDyess rupturing his patellar, this team’s only average players are James Posey and Ryan Bowen, two guys who both played small forward.  Bowen was a weird-looking white guy who rarely played.  Yeah, I think this team needed help wherever it could get it.  In real life, they got Nikoloz Tskitishvili.  He was terrible, and who can even pronounce that (Republic of) Georgian name?  Evans is a tremendous rebounder who has remained fairly consistent throughout his career.  In Year 8, he doesn’t have a data point because Toronto wouldn’t let him play.  You’d have trouble trading him.  Rewind, let me rewrite that.  He’s so underrated that it would be virtually impossible to get 25 cents on the dollar for him even though he has no major character issues.  (I would accentuate the point further, but I can’t do it without cussing.)  Of course, it’s better than just betting three good seasons from Drew Gooden or Dan Gadzuric.  That’s more palatable than it sounds, but still….
  6. Cleveland SF Tayshaun Prince Kentucky Sr.  The remaining players on this team would amount to Andre Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and not much else.  Miller was traded to the Clippers for pocket change, and Wins Produced doesn’t look at Big Z favorably for another year.  Considering that the best point guard in this draft is either Mike Wilks or Dan Dickau (yes, this draft has no frontcourt value), the Cavs should just pick the best player available (even if he would supplant their resident Lithuanian).  Luckily for Ilgauskas, Prince is (somewhat) clearly the best player on the table.  (He is definitely the most consistent one left of any value.)  Although not the most important player on the Pistons’ championship team (that being either Billups or Ben Wallace), he was a very important piece with a UK pedigree.  He’s mile better than Dajuan Wagner, the actual selection.  (In Dajuan’s defense, he did have to have much of his colon removed.  Again, really?)
  7. New York (traded to Denver) PF Udonis Haslem Florida Sr.  Haslem went undrafted in real life.  In the defense of all twenty-nine NBA teams, Haslem did use his year in France to lose a lot of weight.  It paid off.  Haslem has been a very solid player for most of his career, and his Year 3 is the second-best season remaining (behind Dan Gadzuric’s Year 3.)  Of course, his Year 6 Composite Score was .068, which is by no means anything to write home about.  Over the long haul, Haslem wasn’t that great, although as I have said, he had some good seasons.  Of course, that’s why he’s being picked at No. 7 and not say, 3.
  8. Clippers C Dan Gadzuric UCLA Sr.  Only Boozer, Yao, and Reggie Evans have better 4-Year Averages in this class.  Of course, this guy is a reach because he did almost nothing after that.  (In Restricted Free Agency, this is the type of guy you let walk.)  There are a couple of guys left who had better careers than Gadzuric, but the Clippers already had Elton Brand, Lamar Odom (who Wins Produced panned at the time), Corey Maggette, Quentin Richardson (who Win Shares isn’t too, too fond of), and Darius Miles (later traded, had a good 2003-04 according to Wins Produced).  Looking at that frontcourt, maybe I should have reached even further for John Salmons, Devin Brown or Fred Jones.  Nah, I’ll stick with Gadzuric, but this shows you that this draft was not stellar.
  9. Phoenix PF Drew Gooden Kansas Jr.  Phoenix needed bigs.  They had Stephon Marbury, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion (extremely underrated), and one or two more decent years from Penny Hardaway.  On the other hand, their bigs were an old Bo Outlaw (not bad, but…), an old Tom Gugliotta, and Jake Tskalidis (underrated, but still unspectacular).  Gooden took two years to develop, but he became a solid big.  Years 3-5 were good, 6 and 7 were bad, and 8 and 9 were decent (.112 and .083).  Besides, he has a reputation as a good guy, which would hopefully help some with Starbury.
  10. Miami SG Devin Brown UT-San Antonio Sr.  Eddie Jones and Brian Grant solidified the forward spots for the heat.  This is the year before Alonzo Mourning missed a whole year because of that kidney disease he got (again, really?).  However, the next best center is Nenad Krstic, a real reach who stayed in Europe for two more years.  Those two factors lead me to reach for Brown.  (Although John Salmons had a higher 9-Year Average, all of his average seasons are beyond the scope of his rookie contract.)  Brown, when he got his chance, he was a pretty good player with a Year 2 Composite of .146, a Year 3 of .154, and a Year 5 of .117.  The Year 5 can be constructed into his rookie deal via a D-League stint; having spent much of his time there that year, he only took part in 93 NBA minutes in 2002-03.  Brown was just very underrated in the beginning, but do not sign that offer sheet, Heat; after Year 6, he played two more seasons, both of which were below Replacement Level (.025).
  11. Washington SF Caron Butler Connecticut So.  Intuitively, the Wizards organization would try to do its very best to “win one for MJ.”  Caron Butler has the best rookie season and 4-Year Average of any player left on the board.  Part of the charm is that Butler and Jordan play the same position at (in that season) approximately the same level.  This would allow Butler to give MJ a rest while also giving Jordan a solid number of minutes and a starting job.
  12. Clippers SG Fred Jones Oregon Sr.  When covering the Clippers’ previous pick, I gave a long list of how the Clippers’ frontcourt was stacked.  That narrows the list of possible selections to Salmons and Jones.  However, Salmons took a really long time to develop (he had no average seasons under his rookie contract), while Fred Jones did develop while the drafting team’s control.  Fred Jones has a solid Year 2 and Year 3, then declines, allowing the Clippers to not overpay for him in Restricted Free Agency (although he does have a couple of okay seasons remaining).  It’s just too bad that there are still no point guards worth picking.
  13. Milwaukee PF Darius Songaila Wake Forest Sr.  In this draft, it’s a good thing that the Bucks already have a trio of great guards in Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, and Michael Redd.  However, their leading per-36 minute rebounder was a 34-year old Earvin Johnson, followed by rookie Joel Pryzbilla.  Songaila was a good rebounder who put up solid Composite Scores within the realm of his rookie contract.  For some weird, unknown reason, I seem to be against drafting Mike Dunleavy.  Hmm….
  14. Indiana PF Luis Scola Tau Ceramica (ESP) 1980  This is a solid team that could definitely afford to draft a stash player like Scola.  Scola certainly was a good player to stash; when he came over he had two good seasons, a decent season, and then receded.  This way, you get short-term value that you can let go and not feel worried about losing him in free agency.  Besides, somehow, I don’t think drafting a wing would sit too well with Ron Artest (now Metta World Peace).
  15. Houston Mike Dunleavy Duke Jr.  If this really happened and I was in the Houston organization, I would be thanking God Almighty until I was blue in the face.  Dunleavy did not fall this far because he has been a bad player.  Alternatively, he has consistently been a pretty good player.  However, the way this draft was, very few teams actually needed a small forward once Tayshaun Prince was taken.  Caron Butler went ahead of Dunleavy because the Wizards should have needed a win-now player, which Dunleavy wasn’t.  This was just a funny case of circumstance.
  16. Philadelphia (traded to Golden St.) SG John Salmons Miami (FL) Sr.  Salmons is another one of those guys who fell because he was a fairly mediocre player early on.  At this point though, there aren’t many players who would fit here better.  Salmons did become a solid player; it just took a while.  For the Warriors to really cash in on this pick, they should have convinced Salmons to spend some time in Europe to hone his skills.  I think that would work.
  17. Washington PG Mike Wilks Rice Sr.  Like I said during their previous pick, the Wizards should have been looking for players who could help them right now.  Unfortunately, there aren’t any of those left.  However, Wilks certainly wouldn’t have hurt them, and he has the best rookie year left, aside from one-year wonder J.R. Bremer.  He and Tyronn Lue could have split time, and I think it would have worked out.  Wilks only had one other 500+ minute season (2006-07), but that’s in part because he was an undrafted journeyman.
  18. Orlando (traded to Utah) PF Jared Jeffries Indiana So.  Utah, like Washington, is one of those shooting for a last hurrah for a star.  In this case, there are two-John Stockton and Karl Malone.  Even though Malone played in 2003-04, the ensuing season would be his last in Utah.  Jeffries could not come in and produce right away, but he could learn from Malone.  He would develop into an approximately average player, and he is one of the better players available.
  19. Utah (traded to Orlando) PF Chris Wilcox Maryland So.  This team already had Tracy McGrady, the oft-injured Grant Hill, and Mike Miller, so they didn’t need help on the wing.  This is especially true when you realize that the year after this draft is the one where T-Mac went bonkers and had a Composite Score of .270.  That eliminates the candidacy of Matt Barnes, Damien Wilkins, Rasual Butler, Jiri Welsch, and Casey Jacobsen.  That leaves Wilcox and Nenad Krstic.  In that case, it’s a good thing the Magic did need bigs.  Wilcox has the advantage of not staying in Europe for five years.  Wilcox has had a good career, and there is no shame in selecting him.
  20. Toronto (traded to Lakers) SG Casey Jacobsen Stanford Jr.  Jacobsen could provide a good two years of backing up Kobe Bryant.  At this point, that’s practically all you can ask for.
  21. Portland SF Matt Barnes UCLA Sr.  With many of its key players starting to decline (or be Zach Randolph), this team needed a player who could become something.  Barnes became something.  It just took him a while to become really something.  What they could have done is draft him and sign him to a long contract in Restricted Free Agency at a discounted rate.  Then, they sign him to an extension before Year 8 (when he really took off), keeping him through this year.  Since we’re now extrapolating into the current future (I know it’s oxymoronic, but bear with me), I can’t say any more, but still.
  22. Phoenix C Nenad Krstic Partizan Belgrade (SRB) 1983  Like I said earlier, Phoenix needed bigs.  Unfortunately, we are now at the point where the only bigs left of note are Krstic, Lonny Baxter, Qyntel Woods, and Christian Borchardt.  Unfortunately, Krstic stuck around in Europe for two more years.  The alternatives are Rasual Butler (not that great for not that long), Roger Mason, Jr. (first five years, no 500+ minute seasons), Jiri Welsch (short, largely mediocre career), and Bostjan Nachbar (see Butler).  I’m liking Krstic a lot more now.
  23. Detroit SG Jiri Welsch Union Olimpija (SLO) 1980  This is the part of the program where having one halfway-decent season is a point in your favor.  His Year 2 was pretty okay, and at least he won’t rip your heart out of its socket.  Enough said.
  24. New Jersey SG Roger Mason Virginia Jr.  He didn’t have a 500+ minute season until 2007-08, but at least he did have were pretty good.  This draft class didn’t have a whole lot of depth.  (Note that at this point, I am just picking the best players available at any position-it’s that bad.)
  25. Denver (traded to New York) SF Rasual Butler LaSalle Sr.  His Year 2 and Year 7 provided Composite Scores of .094, but his 9-Year scope was bookended by sub-zero seasons.  However, Bostjan Nachbar is the only player remaining with multiple seasons with a Composite Score of .050 or greater.  That makes Butler look much better.
  26. San Antonio (traded to Philadelphia) SF Bostjan Nachbar Benetton Treviso (ITA) 1980  Speaking of Nachbar (rhymes with snock bar), here he is.  Again, at this point mediocrity is a plus.  (I’m sorry for the increasing brevity of these later picks, but there’s just nothing to write about for these guys.)
  27. Lakers (traded to Toronto) PG Smush Parker Fordham Jr.  The water here is so shallow, your knees break the surface.  It’s embarrassing.
  28. Sacramento (traded to Atlanta) PF Lonny Baxter Maryland Sr.  Thank goodness the Timberwolves forfeited their pick because of the Joe Smith scandal; otherwise, I’d have to suffer through another one of these picks.  At least he didn’t have a subzero 500+ minute season ever.

They say that the 2000 NBA Draft is bad.  This one is still better than that atrocity, but this one’s still pretty bad.  I was getting to the point where anything north of the 0 line was a good year!  Well, here is my traditional list of the first-rounders who didn’t make the cut in my redo:

  1. PG Jay Williams Duke Jr. (2-Chicago)*
  2. PF Nikoloz Tskitishvili Benetton Treviso (ITA) 1983 (5-Denver)
  3. SG Dajuan Wagner Memphis Fr. (6-Cleveland)**
  4. PF Melvin Ely Fresno St. Sr. (12-Clippers)
  5. PF Marcus Haislip Tennessee Jr. (13-Milwaukee)
  6. SG Juan Dixon Maryland Sr. (17-Washington)
  7. C Curtis Borchardt Jr. Stanford (18-Orlando-Utah)
  8. PF Ryan Humphrey Notre Dame Sr. (19-Utah-Orlando)
  9. SG Kareem Rush Missouri Sr. (20-Toronto-Lakers)
  10. SF Qyntel Woods Northeast Mississippi CC So. (21-Portland)
  11. PG Frank Williams Illinois Jr. (25-Denver-New York)
  12. SF Chris Jeffries Fresno St. Jr. (27-Lakers-Toronto)
  13. PG Dan Dickau Gonzaga Sr. (28-Sacramento-Atlanta)

Geez, Louise; there are almost as many second rounders in my re-draft as first-rounders.  I’m sure most of these guys, especially Tskitishvili, could have benefitted from maxing out their pre-draft eligibility.  As for the asterisks, * Jay Williams almost died in a motorcycle accident.  However, his rookie year was pretty terrible anyway, and ** Dajuan Wagner suffered from ulcerative colitis and had most of his colon removed.  He made a brief, unsuccessful comeback with the Warriors, then played a year in Israel before retiring.  He was atrocious before the surgery though, anyway.

While on the subject of Wagner, John Calipari actually revoked his scholarship after his freshman year so that Wagner would have to declare for the NBA Draft.  Gee thanks, coach, look where that got me.  Honestly, I’m surprised that more Coach Cal haters don’t bring this up very often.  Oh, look, he pushed this guy into the NBA.  He was terrible, then got a disease and never was successful.  Wow.

Back on track now.  Again, these articles are not meant to end discussions; they’re meant to start them.  Please comment with your opinions.

 

 

2001 NBA Re-Draft

I have decided to re-draft every NBA Draft since 2000.  Going in order, it’s time for the 2001 NBA Re-Draft, Bobby edition.  I will be using Composite Score for my judgments on draftees, and I will now use both statistics to draw conclusions about teams.  There are three Undrafted Free Agents that I could find: Andres Nocioni, Didier-Ilunga Mbenga, and Linton Johnson III.  As before, I only used seasons in which the player exceeded 500 minutes.  Here goes nothing.

  1. Washington PF Pau Gasol FC Barcelona (ESP) 1980  At this point, the Wizards could have drafted anybody and been immensely better.  Richard Hamilton was their lone bright spot, and the analytics aren’t as fond of him as conventional wisdom is.  As for best player available, it’s a toss-up between Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, and (drumroll, please) Shane Battier!  However, Gasol was the best of the three in his rookie season and over the first nine years, so we’ll select him.  Besides, Christian Laettner wasn’t a terrible center.
  2. Clippers (traded to Chicago) SF Shane Battier Duke Sr.  With the selection of Gasol by the Wizards, the Bulls have come to a real quandary.  Chandler and Battier are clearly the best players on the board, but the Bulls already have Brad Miller and Metta World Peace.  Miller was really good for about five or six years, while Metta is overrated (probably because of his reputation as a stopper).  Therefore, I would have selected Battier since Metta could slide over to shooting guard.
  3. Atlanta (traded to Memphis) C Tyson Chandler Dominguez HS (CA) Having traded Mike Bibby and Shareef Abdur-Rahim in separate draft-day trades, the Grizzlies didn’t really have anything of value.  Chandler has been a franchise center for years, and having a cornerstone center is crucial to becoming a contender.  This would be a no-brainer for any team unless they already had a franchise center, in which case it would be Chandler or Richard Jefferson but probably still Chandler.
  4. Chicago PG Gilbert Arenas Arizona So.  This pick would give the Bulls a Starting Five of Arenas, Metta World Peace, Shane Battier, Pau Gasol, and Brad Miller.  This is a formidable line-up by either means of analysis, although for different reasons for the two systems.  I am a bit squeamish about picking Agent Zero because of his high-volume scoring since they already have Metta and Gasol, but then I’d really be reaching for Earl Watson or waiting for Samuel Dalembert to develop.  Yeah, I’ll go with The Hibachi.
  5. Golden St. PG Tony Parker Paris Basket Racing (FRA) 1982  Yes, Tony Parker is overrated.  However, he is still a very good point guard (except for one off-year in 08-09) who can put the ball in the basket.  The Warriors were another one of those teams who just needed help all over the place, and there are a lot of players with similar skill levels at this stage.
  6. Memphis C Brendan Haywood North Carolina Sr.  Unlike some of the players still on the board, Haywood had a solid rookie season, and he maintained that solidity for seven years, got injured, then had another good season.  He was a very dependable player at a key position.  Other players to consider are Richard Jefferson, Mehmet Okur, and Joe Johnson.
  7. New Jersey (traded to Houston) SF Richard Jefferson Arizona Jr.  This is the third-straight team that basically needs the best player available.  Jefferson has had his ups and downs, but he was mostly up during his rookie contract.  His second and third seasons are both among the top three in this class, and his fifth season (which was outside of the rookie deal) was absolutely awesome.  Maybe you couldn’t build a champion around him, but in this draft, Gasol, Chandler, and maybe Parker are the only ones who you could.
  8. Cleveland SG Joe Johnson Arkansas So.  This team had Andre Miller, Matt Harpring, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.  It would be a couple of years, but Big Z would become a solid center.  However, his presence meant that the Cavs could not draft a center or a stretch four (the former because of competition, the latter because they’d have no one in the paint).  That whittled the list of possibilities to Gerald Wallace, J-Rich, Johnson, Earl Watson, and Jamaal Tinsley.  However, Miller and Harpring eliminate Wallace, Watson, and Tinsley.  Through the course of their rookie contracts, Johnson was the better between him and Richardson, particularly in the first two years.  This team would score a lot.
  9. Detroit Jamaal Tinsley Iowa St. Sr.  This team was basically Ben Wallace, although Corliss Williamson and Jerome Williams were not bad players.  However, Jerry Stackhouse was vastly overrated, so this team needs a point guard.  Earl Watson was more consistent, but Tinsley was better in Years 2, 3, and 4 (the ones which really count when drafting, in my opinion).  There will be some really nice centers left on the board late; I can feel it.
  10. Boston C Samuel Dalembert Seton Hall So.  This pick is complicated.  The Celtics’ best players are Paul Pierce and Tony Battie.  Battie has two really good seasons ahead of him before dropping below average.  Dalembert played a grand total of 177 minutes in his first two seasons, but then he blossomed into a consistent, successful center.  The other positions are somewhat thin, and it would have been a disaster to have Zach Randolph and Paul Pierce on the same team at that point.  Troy Murphy and Mehmet Okur would have been good here, too.  This is just a weird pick.
  11. Boston PF Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr.  Now they pick Murphy.  With this pick, they would shore up their frontcourt for years to come with Pierce, Murphy, and Battie/Dalembert.  Murphy’s rookie season was really rough, but he was a solid player.  Earl Watson consistent, but Murphy has six seasons better than Watson’s best through the first nine.  Still, I’m not going to go and call this one a no-brainer.
  12. Seattle SF Gerald Wallace Alabama Fr.  I looked at this team and wondered how on God’s green earth they missed the play-offs.  Then, I saw that their rebouding leader was thirty-eight year-old Patrick Ewing who played barely half the game.  This team needed rebouding.  Wallace can provide that in bunches.  If Seattle can pretty-please Wallace into a year or two of Euro ball, I think this would work.  Wallace would provide boards this team sorely lacked.
  13. Houston (traded to New Jersey) PG Earl Watson UCLA Jr.  Stephon Marbury was a pretty good point guard, Keith Van Horn would be a pretty good power forward, and Aaron Williams was a pretty good center.  On the other hand, Marbury was both a whack job and more of a combo guard than a true point.  Earl Watson has been a true point, and he was remarkably consistent in his first nine years, with the exception of an off-year in his eighth season.  You knew you would get solid, approximately average play from him year-in and year-out.  In real life, the Nets drafted Richard Jefferson, swapped Starbury for Jason Kidd, and went to the Finals.  Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin, and Rodney White had already been drafted, though, leaving more room for good players to slip through the cracks.
  14. Golden St. (from Indiana) C Mehmet Okur Efes Pilsen (TUR) 1979  Wow, Golden St. shores up the two most important positions with very solid players!  The reason Okur hadn’t gone higher is that there were a lot of teams that already had either passable centers or stretch fours.  Okur is a stretch five who only had average rebounding stats twice, so the latter teams might have lacked in rebounding.  However, Okur performed well in his first eight years after an extra season in Turkey, and he would be a welcome addition to any team.  (Not anymore, though, as he has definitely hit the wall).
  15. Orlando C Jason Collins Stanford Sr.  This is definitely a reach, but it is a defendable reach.  This team had one star  year left from Darrell Armstrong and two superstar years from T-Mac.  However, their 2000-01 centers were Andrew DeClerq, Michael Doleac, and John Amaechi.  Ouch.  Collins was almost average in each of his first three years before regressing.  Orlando should have been gearing for a deep run, and Collins has the best rookie season on the table (and ninth-best in the draft).  J-Rich and Zach Randolph are still available.
  16. Charlotte SG Jason Richardson Michigan St. So.  Other than Baron Davis, this team’s core was aging, and Davis peaked early in his career.  This Hornets squad would not need instant help, but they would need help eventually.  Either Richardson or Spartans teammate Randolph could provide that, although Richardson was more reliable.  Richardson’s first two years were not great, but he really become a solid player who was consistently above average.  This guy probably could have gone earlier, but I won’t sweat it too much.
  17. Toronto PF Zach Randolph Michigan St. Fr.  This is a best available non-small forward move; this team had Vince Carter.  Overall, Randolph had a better first nine than Watson, Tinsley, and Jason Collins (who were already picked), but he’s had a lot of ups and downs.  Hopefully, this team wouldn’t implode when Carter stopped caring about being a Raptor because Randolph might wreck the chemistry even further.  Then again, who am I kidding, chemistry’s not that important, right?
  18. Houston (traded to New Jersey) SG Trenton Hassell Austin Peay Sr.  If the Jason Kidd trade hadn’t happened and this had, this team would play a lot of small ball with Hassell at the 3 and Marbury at the 2.  Hassell had some good years and some bad years, but he marks the point where the quality of the draft starts to really decline.  This draft was good in that it had three stars and about twelve or fifteen decent starters, some of whom had a year or two where they were really, really good.  Well, Hassell marks the end of that.  You’ve just crossed over into the Twilight Zone.
  19. Portland PF Eddie Griffin Seton Hall Fr.  I know he died in an alcohol-related car crash, but he was good player.  Despite being dead for the last four seasons of the range. his 9-year average is still .040.  His 4-year average is .087.  This guy had some decent seasons, and I really think that was a solid player.  Other possibilities were Carlos Arroyo, Kwame Brown, and Andres Nocioni.
  20. Cleveland (traded to Orlando)  SF Andres Nocioni Basquet Manresa (ESP) 1979  Like I said before, the Magic should have been in a win-now mode.   However, there are no player remaining who posted a Composite Score above .070 before 2003, so I’m going with the import.  Nocioni spent three years in Spain playing for Tau Ceramica, then he come over.  He played decently in his first year (.059) and well in the next three seasons (.122, .090, .094).  Since then, he has declined severely, but that was beyond the scope of this rookie contract.
  21. Boston PG Carlos Arroyo Florida International Sr.  Now that the Celtics had their frontcourt shored up, now it was time to work on the backcourt.  Arroyo is by far the best guard left in this draft, and he had a handful of good years.  I’m sure the Celtics would have wanted him to spend a couple year s in Europe developing, but Arroyo could play basketball well.  He was around average in even-numbered years and well below that in odd-numbered years, though, so this is not a franchise point guard here.  But he does have Paul Pierce to pass to.
  22. Orlando C Kwame Brown Glynn Academy HS (GA)  Unfortunately, I don’t think there would be any way to convince this guy to play in Europe.  However, his Year 3 was very solid (.127).  On the other hand, his first and fourth were not (.008 and -.001, respectively).  Other possibilities include Steven Hunter.
  23. Houston (traded to New Jersey) C DeSagana Diop Oak Hill Academy HS (VA)  This is another guy who you would want playing in Europe for two or three years.  However, that probably shouldn’t have been unexpeceted since this is a high school player now known for his horrific contract.  This guy did rack up three consecutive good years from 2005-2008, and he was good enough then to be the starting center on a play-off contender.  But like Nocioni and Arroyo, this guy fell far because he took a long time to develop.  This draft is definitely better than the previous year’s was.
  24. Utah SF Bobby Simmons DePaul Jr.  This aging team could no longer find the long-term replacements it needed for Karl Malone and John Stockton, nor could it find pieces for one last Finals push.  That leaves Bobby Simmons, the best player on the Big Board, as the Jazz’s selection.  Utah could have stashed this guy in Europe for three years, then received three years of approximately average ball.  He then disappeared for a couple years before posting a .116 Composite Score in 2008-09.  This is where the draft really starts to get hairy, though.
  25. Sacramento C Steven Hunter DePaul So.  This Kings team was built for two more years of greatness only to see Stojakovic and Bibby try to hold up the pieces after their older players declined.  Even after acquiring the latter on draft day, this way still an old team.  Steven Hunter’s Years 4-6 would provide solid center play good enough to start or Sixth Man for a play-off team.  A couple of years in Europe would extend the team’s control over him, and he would provide the Kings a passable replacement for Scot Pollard and Vlade Divac, who would both decline.
  26. Philadelphia C Loren Woods Arizona Sr.  Like Sacramento, Philadelphia was a team in decline at all positions.  Woods had a couple of good years under the rookie contract window before disappearing.  Other possibilities are Eddy Curry, Brian Scalabrine, and Vladimir Radmanovic.
  27. Memphis SF Vladimir Radmanovic FMP Zeleznik (SRB) 1980  Memphis drafted a twin towers with Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood.  Radmanovic is the best non-big available.  Even though he had no seasons where he was at the league average, you knew exactly what you would get from him year-in and year-out.  Furthermore, he is a shooter, which analytics tend to discriminate against.
  28. San Antonio C Eddy Curry Thornwood HS (IL)  Because of the Joe Smith situation, this is the final pick of the first round.  Curry was  solid player in three of his first five years, and he was slightly better than Jarron Collins and Brian Scalabrine over that span.  Besides, a guess this might be a symphathy pick for a nice guy who never developed.

So that ends my 2001 Re-Draft.  Here are the first rounders who weren’t first round in my redo:

  1. SF Rodney White Charlotte Fr. (9-Detroit)
  2. SF Kedrick Brown Okaloosa-Walton CC So. (11-Boston)
  3. PF Kirk Haston Indiana Jr. (16-Charlotte)
  4. PF Michael Bradley Villanova Jr. (17-Toronto)
  5. SG Joseph Forte North Carolina So. (21-Boston)
  6. SG Jeryl Sasser SMU Sr. (22-Houston)
  7. SG Brandon Armstrong Pepperdine Jr. (23-Houston-New Jersey)
  8. PG Raul Lopez Real Madrid (ESP) 1980 (24-Utah)

Come back soon.  This is not meant to end discussions; it is meant to start them.  Please comment with your opinions.  2001DraftSpreadsheet is where you can find my data.

2000 NBA Re-Draft

In my experience, it’s fun to go back to some draft in history and redo it using data from the players’ actual careers.  Who would have gone Number 2 in 2003 instead of Darko if we had known he’d be a bust?  Where would Kobe have landed if we realized he was a future mega-star?  This is always fun.  Today, I’ve decided to redo the 2000 Draft, regarded as one of the worst in NBA history.  I found Composite Scores for each draftee (and undrafted free agent Paul McPherson) through the 2008-09 season.  I will use this data, as well as the teams’ Win Shares data from the previous year, to assign my picks.  In my calculations, a player had to play in at least 500 minutes for his statistics to count.  When a pick in real life was traded after being drafted, it will be assumed that the trade still occurred.  This neutralizes the effects of a small sample size.  Future player judgments are based on Win Shares data only.  Please comment with your opinions.

(I apologize for not posting lately; it’s not that I’ve been busy, I just haven’t had anything to write about.  Sorry readers.  Yes, I’m apologizing to all six of them.  Sigh.)

  1. New Jersey SF Mike Miller Florida So.  Despite being a shooter, Miller has been amazingly underrated.  He flirted with averageness during his rookie contract years, but made the jump the following year and sustained a period of very good-ness (Composite Scores of .167, .138, .138 again, .168, and .162).  If New Jersey could have retained him after Restricted Free Agency (which they might have), this would have been a very solid pick.  Wins Produced is especially fond of him.
  2. Vancouver SG Michael Redd Ohio St. Jr.  In his rookie year, Redd only played 35 minutes.  However, he broke out in an amazing rookie(?) season and played fantastically throughout the remainder of his rookie contract.  A backcourt of Redd and Mike Bibby could have led the Grizzlies to success (and a longer stay in Canada).  Along with Shareef Abdur-Rahim, this team would have had a solid foundation.  If they could have kept it together, the Grizzlies would have good.  After all, they acquired Pau Gasol in a draft-day trade.
  3. Clippers SF Hedo Turkoglu Efes Pilsen (Turkey) 1979  The 1999-00 Clippers were terrible, with their only players of note being Lamar Odom, Eric Piatkowski (who actually was pretty decent), and Jeff McInnis (who was only above-average once).  The Clippers would have needed to pick the best player on the board.  Hedo Turkoglu is that player.  A frontcourt of Turkoglu and Odom would have been very effective with a defensive center around, too.  Although Jamaal Magloire is still on the board, he flamed out at the end of his rookie contract.  Turkoglu was solid for years, and his poor defensive reputation is somewhat unfounded.  Of course, the Clips organization probably would have botched this one.
  4. Chicago C Jamaal Magloire Kentucky Sr.  Magloire flamed out after his rookie contract.  However, he was a very solid player in his first four years, especially when compared to this draft.  In fact, he has the highest 4-Year Average Composite Score in the class.  He and Elton Brand would have been two very good big men over the life of their rookie contracts.  When Ron Artest (I mean Metta World Peace) and Magloire would break out the next year, this team would be scary, so long as Brand was still there.  However, that window would have been small; Magloire receded over the next two years.
  5. Orlando PF Eduardo Najera Oklahoma Sr.  When this guy has had a chance to play, he’s quietly been really good.  Orlando had lots of good young players the previous year: Ben Wallace, Matt Harpring, Corey Maggette, and Chuck Atkins.  All four of them were traded after the draft.  However, those four and Najera could carry a play-off team with a good bench.  In fact, it could be your starting line-up for a 50-win team a couple years down the road.  Hopefully, the Magic would not have messed up there.
  6. Atlanta SF Morris Peterson Michigan St. Sr.  This team had Jason Terry, Dikembe Mutombo, and not much else for the future.  However, with only one blip, Peterson was around average in each of his first eight seasons.  He could have been a dependable starter for a decent team until a better player would come along, in which case he would be a good sixth man.  As I said, this is regarded as one of the worst drafts in history.
  7. Chicago (to Cleveland) PF Mark Madsen Stanford Sr.  Andre Miller is the only player who had a really bright future ahead of him on this team.  Etan Thomas and Joel Pryzbilla are probably better picks, but Madsen produced in his first year, whereas Thomas didn’t even debut until the next year.  Most people only remember Madsen for his wacky dancing, but he was actually an okay player, especially during his rookie contract.  Still, this is a terrible draft.
  8. Cleveland (to Chicago) SG Quentin Richardson DePaul So.  Richardson with Ron Artest would make a solid wing combination for the Bulls.  Richardson’s first two years were decent, and he had a couple more good years after his rookie contract expired.  The Bulls would have a bright future here.
  9. Houston (to Milwaukee)  PF Stromile Swift LSU So.  Milwaukee had a great backcourt already with Ray Allen and Sam Cassell.  They had made the play-offs.  Now, it was time to start working on the frontcourt.  Stromile was actually a pretty good player over the life of his rookie deal.  As long as the Bucks remembered to let him go in Free Agency, this is a good pick.  I’m actually surprised that Swift is going this high, but he has the best rookie season of anyone still available.
  10. Orlando (to Clippers) C Joel Pryzbilla Minnesota So.  I’m going to assume this trade still happened, but that Corey Maggette wasn’t included.  When Pryzbilla gets a chance to play, he’s usually good.  He may have been rushed a bit if this actually occurred, but it probably wouldn’t have affected him that much.  He’s much better than the actual pick, Keyon Dooling, at this spot.  At this point, we’ll start to see players who didn’t start right away begin to come off the board.
  11. Boston PF Kenyon Martin Cincinnati Sr.  Paul Pierce and Tony Battie would need help, as Kenny Anderson had just had his last solid season.  It took Martin two years to develop, but he became a player who flirted with average after that.  Battie and Martin would have made a good, versatile front line, and this could have been a good team with more pieces.
  12. Dallas SF Darius Miles East St. Louis HS (IL)  This team had Steve Nash, Dirk, Michael Finley, and Shawn Bradley.  I’d imagine that this team should have had a win-now mentality.  Darius Miles’s two best seasons were his two first.  Finley could slide over to shooting guard, and this would be a decent starting line-up.  It would definitely be a play-off worthy line-up until Miles’s slide in Year 3.  Honestly, I can’t take Tskalidis or Voskuhl for a team like this with Miles still on the board, and I can’t see Dallas waiting two years for Marko Jaric.  All in all, this probably would have been their best pick.
  13. Orlando (to Dallas) SF Desmond Mason Oklahoma St. Sr.  Once Miles started to crumble, Dallas would need a replacement.  How about taking him with the next pick?  Mason was a solid player over his rookie contract who greatly declined after that.  Two years from Miles, then two years from Mason.  I think this is a good run, especially since Mason would be a more-than-capable back-up in Year 2.
  14. Detroit G Marko Jaric Paf Bologna (ITA) 1978  Grant Hill just had his last healthy season for a long time, Jerry Stackhouse stats fluctuate greatly, and Christian Laettner is the most consistent Piston for the future.  Jaric would come to the NBA in two years and become a decent player.  Jaric is by and large the best player still on the board, with only Speedy Claxton and Jake Tskalidis anywhere close to him throughout their rookie contracts.  Jaric is acutally a pretty good pick, though.
  15. Milwuakee (to Houston) PF Etan Thomas Syracuse Sr.  For a team with only Cuttino Mobley and Kenny Thomas having a bright future, this looks like a good pick.  Etan could always play center, and the Twin Thomases would have made a good frontcourt.  I like this pick; the only other possible option is Jamal Crawford.
  16. Sacramento PG Speedy Claxton Hofstra Sr.  Considering how good this team was, the Kings should have taken the best player available.  In real life, they took Hedo Turkoglu, arguably the best player in the entrie draft.  In this sim, they take Speedy Claxton.  Claxton is not the best player left, but he does fill a definitve need.  Remember, Mike Bibby’s still in Canada.  Although Bibby would be better, I still see the Kings having successful.
  17. Seattle C Jake Voskuhl Connecticut Sr.  The Sonics probably could have resigned Horace Grant to a one-year deal.  After he goes, center becomes a need, though.  Voskuhl could have been his replacement.  After a rookie year where he barely played, Voskuhl ran off three solid seasons, with his best one being the first.  Voskuhl could have been a good starter for the first two and a dependable back-up for the third.  Of course, learning under Grant might have made Voskuhl even better.  The Sonics already had  good guards, so they didn’t need Jamal Crawford.  That makes Voskuhl a good pick.
  18. Clippers SG Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr.  Finally, here is Jamal Crawford.  Originally, I had him at 8, but a few mistakes pushed him all the way down here.  The reason he is so low is that his first two years were terrible, and his next two weren’t great.  Even though he got better, he only has one above-average season in his first nine.  Of course the Clippers would take him here.  Still, he would make this team better.
  19. Charlotte SG Eddie House Arizona St. Sr.  Here is where we start to get into players who had only had a couple good seasons or who weren’t good for a long time.  House, the first of these, didn’t have a good year until Year 5.  However, drafting him gives Charlotte a jump on signing him.  Until then, he can shoot.  There are better players available, but the Hornets have good bigs and Baron Davis, which covers all of them.
  20. Philadelphia PF Donell Harvey Florida Fr.  The 76ers are another team that just needs to pick the best player available.  Harvey’s Years 2 and 3 are better than Taskalidis’s, and most of the “projects” don’t do well until Year 4.  Although Harvey’s Year 4 isn’t great at all, by then Philadelphia will have had three years to address the issue.  Besides, Philly’s weaker at the bigs and will be weaker there longer, negating advantages for Hart and Dooling.
  21. Toronto C Jake Tskalidis AEK (GRE) 1979  Toronto was solid at guard and on the wing with Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, and Doug Christie.  However, they needed bigs.  Tskalidis would be the best non-project big remaining, so he fills a needed to some degree.  Of course, Tskalidis is just a stopgap, but a stopgap is much better than nothing.
  22. New York (to Dallas) PG Jason Hart Syracuse Sr.  At this point, the Mavs can afford to draft a project player.  Hart is the best of those in the draft.  In Years 4-7, he has two above-average seasons and a .090 season.  If the Mavs were to give him a three-year extension, they would maximize his value and have a long-term back-up for Steve Nash and/or whoever’s playing shooting guard.  This is where the draft starts to get thin, though.
  23. Utah SG Paul McPherson DePaul Fr.  Jeff Hornacek just retired, so you need a replacement.  McPherson posted a .078 Composite Score before leaving the NBA.  On an aging team, McPherson provides a short-term solution, which is about all you can hope for in the next three years for anybody left in the draft, if that.  McPherson is the only player in this re-draft who actually went undrafted.
  24. Chicago PF Brian Cardinal Purdue Sr.  Another project, Cardinal has the best Year 4 of anyone left on the board.  He has been a solid player for years, and this pick would have longevity if he stayed a Bull beyond his rookie deal.
  25. Phoenix C Chris Mihm Texas Jr.  With a Year 4 Composite of .099, this pick would eventually ripen.  This Phoenix team was the last before Penny Hardaway and Cliff Robinson began their steep declines, so Phoenix needs to take a solid player.  Centers are hard to find, and Mihm gives his team three solid years before declining.  Resigning him to a two-year extension, then dumping him, would have been a good strategy.
  26. Denver SG Courtney Alexander Fresno St. Sr.  This Nuggets squad needed guards, and Alexander would provide a solid Year 2.  At this stage, teams have to settle for one decent season; Alexander would provide that.  The draft becomes thinner and thinner.
  27. Indiana PG Keyon Dooling Missouri So.  Considering the talent that’s left, it’s a good thing that this Pacer team didn’t needed an immediate replacement anywhere.  Dooling, who didn’t really blossom until Year 7, could back up Travis Best (and Mark Jackson if they could have resigned him) until he’s ready.  Looking back at history, that might take a while.  This selection leaves DeShawn Stevenson as the only player left with multiple good seasons.
  28. Portland PF Jerome Moiso UCLA So.  Moise had a superb sophomore year, with a Composite Score of .138, and no other seasons worth mentioning.  This takes the last above-average season off the board.
  29. Lakers C Primoz Brezec Union Olimpija (SLO) 1979  The Lakers could have stashed Brezec in Europe for a while and let him develop.  In real life, he had a good Year 5, a decent Year 6, and no other qualifying seasons above 0.  Of course, more time to develop and an apprenticeship under Shaq could have worked wonders.  We will never know.

This concludes my 2000 NBA Re-Draft.  You can view my data at 2000DraftSpreadsheet.  Players drafted in my first round have their names highlighted in red.  I would also like to list all of the 1st rounders who didn’t make it into this redo of history.  Here they are, with their actual landing spot in parentheses:

  1. PF Marcus Fizer Iowa St. Jr. (4-Chicago)
  2. SF DerMarr Johnson Cincinnati Fr. (6-Atlanta)
  3. PG Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. (14-Detroit)
  4. C Jason Collier Georgia Tech Sr. (15-Houston)
  5. SG DeShawn Stevenson Washington Union HS (CA) (23-Utah)
  6. C Dalibor Bagaric Benston Zagreb (CRO) 1980 (24-Chicago)
  7. C Mamadou N’Diaye Auburn Sr. (26-Denver)
  8. PG Erick Barkley St. John’s So. (28-Portland)

I would also like to note that Stromile Swift does not have Wins Produced data for his rookie season, which may have changed my final decisions one way or the other.  Hopefully, we will someday be able to insert this draft into a computer and see what (might) really have happened.  It sounds like a good idea, and I would be really excited to hear about a program of this nature.  Please comment with your own opinions.

Player Adjusted Win Score Per 40 Minutes (PAWS40) Primer

I am going to talk about an upcoming draft.  It’s not the NFL Draft, although that one’s coming sooner.  In fact, it seems almost sacreligious to tallk about any other draft — in April, anyway.  After all, the NFL Draft is The Draft.  Regardless, I am going to unveil a list that I ‘ve had stored in an Excel for about a month; it contains the Position Adjusted Marginal Win Scores Per 40 Minutes (PAWS40) for hundreds of NCAA basketball players.  I would like to mention that only those who played for an NCAA Tournament team have their stats adjusted for strength of schedule (this does not include Fab Melo or Festus Ezeli).  Naturally, there will be some surprises (who the heck is Jack Cooley, anyway?), but true analytics always do.  Please leave comments if you find anything especially interesting.  Here’s the list:

Rank Position Player School PAWS40
1 SF Tony Mitchell North Texas 17.02
2 C Anthony Davis Kentucky 16.07
3 PF Arsalan Kazemi Rice 15.48
4 PG Damian Lillard Weber St. 15.27
5 C William Mosley Northwestern St. 14.55
6 C Jack Cooley Notre Dame 12.26
7 PF Mike Muscala Bucknell 11.98
8 SG Rakim Sanders Fairfield 11.67
9 C Ricardo Ratcliffe Missouri 11.61
10 PF Pierce Hornung Colorado St. 11.34
11 C Tyler Zeller North Carolina 11.29
12 PF Jae Crowder Marquette 11.22
13 C Mike Groselle The Citadel 10.95
14 SF Solomon Hill Arizona 10.82
15 PF Kevin Jones West Virginia 10.81
16 C Cody Zeller Indiana 10.74
17 SF Dane Miller Rutgers 10.72
18 PF Arnett Moultrie Mississippi St. 10.58
19 SG Orlando Johnson UC-Santa Barbara 10.47
20 PF Doug McDermott Creighton 10.44
21 C John Fraley Austin Peay 10.35
22 SF Travis Wear UCLA 10.32
23 PG B.J. Young Arkansas 10.27
24 C Jared Sullinger Ohio St. 10.15
25 PG Durand Scott Miami (FL) 10.07
26 SF Will Barton Memphis 9.98
27 PF Andre Roberson Colorado 9.91
28 C Jeff Withey Kansas 9.91
29 PF Thomas Robinson Kansas 9.85
30 C Mike Scott Virginia 9.84
31 SF Marcus Denmon Missouri 9.83
32 C Greg Mangano Yale 9.75
33 PG C.J. McCollum Lehigh 9.60
34 PF Torye Pelham Southern Miss 9.58
35 SG Devoe Joseph Oregon 9.57
36 SF Otto Porter Georgetown 9.51
37 SF Rodney Williams Minnesota 9.42
38 SF Eric Wallace Seattle 9.42
39 PF Javon McCrea Buffalo 9.38
40 PF Devon Collier Oregon St. 9.38
41 C Meyers Leonard Illinois 9.35
42 C Chris Cooper Old Dominion 9.35
43 C Herb Pope Seton Hall 9.35
44 SF Devon Lamb Lamar 9.31
45 C Mark Cisco Columbia 9.25
46 C Al’lonzo Coleman Presbyterian 9.25
47 SF Moe Harkless St. John’s 9.12
48 C Eli Holman Detroit 9.01
49 PG Joe Ragland Wichita St. 8.97
50 C Isaac Butts Appalachian St. 8.95
51 C Justin Glenn Lipscomb 8.95
52 PF Bernard James Florida St. 8.91
53 C Gregory Echenique Creighton 8.84
54 SF Terrence Ross Washington 8.82
55 PF John Henson North Carolina 8.79
56 C Drew Gordon New Mexico 8.78
57 C Andrew Nicholson St. Bonaventure 8.77
58 SG Trent Lockett Arizona St. 8.77
59 PG Jerime Anderson UCLA 8.77
60 C Antwan Carter Longwood 8.75
61 SG John Jenkins Vanderbilt 8.69
62 PF Jarrod Jones Ball St. 8.68
63 PF Murphy Holloway Mississippi 8.68
64 PF Quincy Acy Baylor 8.64
65 SF David Wear UCLA 8.62
66 PF Michael Morrison George Mason 8.58
67 SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Georgia 8.57
68 C John Bohannon UTEP 8.55
69 PF Draymond Green Michigan St. 8.54
70 SG Jerry Brown Fresno St. 8.47
71 C Joe Burton Oregon St. 8.45
72 PG Isaiah Canaan Murray St. 8.44
73 SG Steven Holt St. Mary’s (CA) 8.42
74 SF Melsahn Bassabe Iowa 8.42
75 PG Scott Machado Iona 8.41
76 C Kyle O’Quinn Norfolk St. 8.40
77 SG C.J. Wilcox Washington 8.37
78 C Corbin Moore Pepperdine 8.35
79 C Augustine Rubit South Alabama 8.35
80 C Ricardo Andreotti South Dakota 8.35
81 SF Alex Young IUPUI 8.32
82 SF Lamar Patterson Pittsburgh 8.32
83 PG Deonte Burton Nevada 8.27
84 SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 8.23
85 C Mason Plumlee Duke 8.18
86 PG Gerald Robinson Georgia 8.17
87 PG Dee Bost Mississippi St. 8.17
88 SG Jared Cunningham Oregon St. 8.17
89 SG Khalif Wyatt Temple 8.16
90 C Raphiael Putney Massachusetts 8.15
91 C Mouphtaou Yarou Villanova 8.15
92 SF Olek Czyz Nevada 8.12
93 PG Kerron Johnson Belmont 8.09
94 SG Tyrus McGee Iowa St. 8.05
95 C Alec Brown WI-Green Bay 8.05
96 PF Will Yeguete Florida 8.02
97 PF Dario Hunt Nevada 7.98
98 PF Mike Moser UNLV 7.95
99 SF Travis McKie Wake Forest 7.92
100 PF Rob Jones St. Mary’s (CA) 7.92
101 C Brad Waldow St. Mary’s (CA) 7.92
102 C Garrett Stutz Wichita St. 7.91
103 C Gorgui Dieng Louisville 7.91
104 SG Reggie Bullock North Carolina 7.90
105 PF Jeffrey Taylor Vanderbilt 7.88
106 SG Trey Zeigler Central Michigan 7.87
107 SG Sean Mosley Maryland 7.87
108 PG Trae Golden Tennessee 7.87
109 SF Brian Voelkel Vermont 7.85
110 C David Bruce Hampton 7.85
111 C Aziz N’Diaye Washngton 7.85
112 SG Dion Waiters Syracuse 7.79
113 SG Drew Hanlen Belmont 7.79
114 PF Terrence Jones Kentucky 7.72
115 PF Chris Braswell Charlotte 7.68
116 SG Kenny Boynton Florida 7.67
117 PG Maalik Wayns Villanova 7.67
118 PG Aaron Craft Ohio St. 7.65
119 PG Lewis Jackson Purdue 7.65
120 C Reggie Johnson Miami (FL) 7.65
121 SG C.J. Harris Wake Forest 7.57
122 PG Nate Wolters South Dakota St. 7.56
123 C Daniel Miller Georgia Tech 7.55
124 C Darrin Williams Illinois-Chicago 7.55
125 SG Charles Abouo BYU 7.54
126 SF Kyle Weems Missouri St. 7.52
127 C Michael Glover Iona 7.49
128 SG Mike Dixon Missouri 7.49
129 SG Lenzelle Smith, Jr. Ohio St. 7.45
130 C Tim Owens Troy 7.45
131 C Kodi Maduka Tulsa 7.45
132 SG Larry Anderson Long Beach St. 7.42
133 PF John Shurna Northwestern 7.38
134 C De’Mon Brooks Davidson 7.37
135 C Mike Allison Maine 7.35
136 PF Elias Harris Gonzaga 7.32
137 PF Keith Clanton Central Florida 7.28
138 PF Demontre Harris South Carolina 7.28
139 SF Victor Oladipo Indiana 7.27
140 PG Terrell Stoglin Maryland 7.27
141 SG James Bell Villanova 7.27
142 C Justin Hamilton LSU 7.25
143 SF Kris Joseph Syracuse 7.23
144 C Andre Drummond Connecticut 7.22
145 PG Tony Wroten, Jr. Washington 7.17
146 PG Pierre Jackson Baylor 7.16
147 C Patric Young Florida 7.16
148 PG Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 7.14
149 PG Scoop Jardine Syracuse 7.11
150 SG Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 7.10
151 SG Briante Weber VCU 7.08
152 PF Melvin Ejim Iowa St. 7.07
153 SF Rodney McGruder Kansas St. 7.06
154 C Zeke Marshall Akron 7.05
155 C Blake Metcalf Albany 7.05
156 C Kyle Barone Idaho 7.05
157 C Alex Len Maryland 7.05
158 C Steven Idlet Tulsa 7.05
159 C Jason Washburn Utah 7.05
160 SF Rodney Hood Mississippi St. 7.02
161 PG Jamal Fenton New Mexico 7.02
162 SF Sean Armand Iona 7.01
163 PF C.J. Fair Syracuse 6.99
164 PG Carl Jones St. Joesph’s 6.97
165 SF Austin Thornton Michigan St. 6.95
166 SG David Kyles Wichita St. 6.94
167 SF Dorian Finney-Smith Virginia Tech 6.92
168 SG Justin Hawkins UNLV 6.91
169 C Julian Boyd LIU-Brooklyn 6.90
170 SG Brandon Triche Syracuse 6.87
171 SF Chase Stanback UNLV 6.86
172 PF Robbie Hummel Purdue 6.85
173 SF Griffin Callahan South Dakota St. 6.84
174 C Richard Howell North Carolina St. 6.83
175 SF Kent Bazemore Old Dominion 6.82
176 SG C.J. Williams North Carolina St. 6.80
177 PF Ryan Kelly Duke 6.77
178 SG Dominic Cheek Villanova 6.77
179 PF Wendell McKines New Mexico St. 6.76
180 PG Jason Clark Georgetown 6.75
181 C Ben Aird Utah Valley St. 6.75
182 SG Matt Dickey UNC-Asheville 6.74
183 PG Justin Cobbs California 6.74
184 C Scott Saunders Belmont 6.73
185 C JaMychal Green Alabama 6.71
186 PG Matthew Dellavedova St. Mary’s (CA) 6.69
187 SF Jamaal Franklin San Diego St. 6.68
188 PF Chris Gaston Fordham 6.68
189 PF Kenny Kadji Miami (FL) 6.68
190 SG Chase Tapley San Diego St. 6.65
191 PF Chane Behanan Louisville 6.60
192 SF Travis Releford Kansas 6.60
193 PF Romero Osby Oklahoma 6.58
194 SG Doron Lamb Kentucky 6.57
195 PG Josiah Turner Arizona 6.57
196 C T.J. Robinson Long Beach St. 6.55
197 PF Noah Hartsock BYU 6.55
198 C Keith Wright Harvard 6.55
199 SG Tyler Lamb UCLA 6.47
200 C Jake Cohen Davidson 6.45
201 PF DeShaun Thomas Ohio St. 6.45
202 C Adreian Payne Michigan St. 6.44
203 SG Hugh Greenwood New Mexico 6.43
204 PG Kendall Marshall North Carolina 6.42
205 SF Allen Crabbe California 6.42
206 SF Demitrius Conger St. Bonaventure 6.41
207 SG Chris Smith Louisville 6.40
208 SG Dorian Green Colorado St. 6.40
209 PG Jordan Hulls Indiana 6.38
210 PF Toarlyn Fitzpatrick South Florida 6.37
211 SG Kevin Foster Santa Clara 6.37
212 PG Kendall Williams New Mexico 6.36
213 SG Hugh Robertson South Florida 6.36
214 SF Bradley Beal Florida 6.35
215 SF Kareem Jamar Montana 6.35
216 PF Erik Etherly Loyola (MD) 6.35
217 PG Lorenzo Brown North Carolina St. 6.34
218 SF Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 6.33
219 SG Chris Crawford Memphis 6.33
220 PG Will Cherry Montana 6.33
221 PG Anthony Miles Lamar 6.33
222 PF Rahlir Jefferson Temple 6.33
223 PF Jeremy Atkinson UNC-Asheville 6.32
224 C Royce White Iowa St. 6.29
225 SG Brandon Paul Illinois 6.27
226 C Alasdair Fraser Maine 6.25
227 C Carson Desrosiers Wake Forest 6.25
228 PG Roy McCallum Detroit 6.24
229 SF Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati 6.23
230 PF Evan Smotrycz Michigan 6.22
231 C Juvonte Reddic VCU 6.21
232 SF Brian Conklin St. Louis 6.21
233 PG Phil Pressey Missouri 6.21
234 PG Trevor Releford Alabama 6.20
235 PF David Kravish California 6.20
236 SG Chasson Randle Stanford 6.17
237 PG Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 6.15
238 C Cameron Black Bowling Green 6.15
239 C Matt Kavanaugh Dayton 6.15
240 SF Sheldon McClellan Texas 6.10
241 SF Harrison Barnes North Carolina 6.07
242 PG Erving Walker Florida 6.06
243 SF John Gasser Wisconsin 6.06
244 C Yancy Gates Cincinnati 6.06
245 C Tarik Black Memphis 6.05
246 C Devin Booker Clemson 6.05
247 C Jon Pack Coastal Carolina 6.05
248 C Corey Petros Oakland (MI) 6.05
249 C Hamidu Rahman New Mexico St. 6.03
250 PG Tu Holloway Xavier 6.02
251 PG Cashmere Wright Cincinnati 6.00
252 PF Jamal Olasewere LIU-Brooklyn 5.98
253 SF Quincy Miller Baylor 5.97
254 SG Gerard Coleman Providence 5.97
255 SG Jordan McRae Tennessee 5.97
256 SG Brandon Wood Michigan St. 5.95
257 SG Robert Olson Loyola (MD) 5.95
258 C Wendell Lewis Mississippi St. 5.95
259 PF Dwayne Evans St. Louis 5.94
260 PG Jerian Grant Notre Dame 5.89
261 SF James Ennis Long Beach St. 5.89
262 SG Cameron Clark Oklahoma 5.87
263 SG Ryne Smith Purdue 5.86
264 C Will Davis II UC-Irvine 5.85
265 SG T.J. DiLeo Temple 5.84
266 SF Dezmine Wells Xavier 5.81
267 SG Ryan Boatright Connecticut 5.78
268 SG Dylon Cormier Loyola (MD) 5.77
269 SG Anthony Brown Stanford 5.77
270 PF C.J.  Leslie North Carolina St. 5.75
271 C Kenny Buckner Boise St. 5.75
272 C Andrew Smith Butler 5.75
273 C Mohammed Fall Montana St. 5.75
274 PF Doug Anderson Detroit 5.74
275 PG Nik Cochran Davidson 5.73
276 PF Jon Smith Ohio 5.73
277 SF Clint Steindl St. Mary’s (CA) 5.73
278 PG Vander Blue Marquette 5.72
279 PG Brad Tinsley Vanderbilt 5.69
280 SG Jahenns Manigat Creighton 5.69
281 PF Renardo Sidney Mississippi St. 5.68
282 PF Mike Cobbins Oklahoma St. 5.68
283 C Robert Sacre Gonzaga 5.64
284 C Jordan Morgan Michigan 5.64
285 SG Anthony Marshall UNLV 5.62
286 PG J.P. Primm UNC-Asheville 5.62
287 PF Zack Novak Michigan 5.61
288 C Perry Jones Baylor 5.60
289 SG TyShawn Edmondson Austin Peay 5.57
290 SG Brady Heslip Baylor 5.56
291 SF Tony Snell New Mexico 5.55
292 C Jordan Henriguez-Roberts Kansas St. 5.55
293 C Adjehi Baru College of Charleston 5.55
294 C Kendall Gray Delaware St. 5.55
295 SG Jorge Gutierrez California 5.54
296 SF Milton Jennings Clemson 5.52
297 PF Ryan Evans Wisconsin 5.51
298 PF Lance Goulbourne Vanderbilt 5.49
299 PF Hollis Thompson Georgetown 5.48
300 C Jordan Dykstra South Dakota St. 5.47
301 PF Jaron Lane UNC-Asheville 5.46
302 C Clint Chapman Texas 5.46
303 SG J’Covan Brown Texas 5.45
304 C Dewayne Dedmon USC 5.45
305 SF Laurent Rivard Harvard 5.43
306 PG Seth Curry Duke 5.42
307 PG Shabazz Napier Connecticut 5.41
308 SF Joe Harris Virginia 5.39
309 SF Brock Zylstra BYU 5.38
310 SG D.J. Richardson Illinois 5.37
311 PG Abdul Gaddy Washington 5.37
312 SF Grant Gibbs Creighton 5.36
313 C Johnathan Mills Southern Miss 5.35
314 C Nate Lozeau Portland St. 5.35
315 C Derrick Nix Michigan St. 5.34
316 SG Jewuan Long Murray St. 5.34
317 SG Oliver McNally Harvard 5.34
318 SG Darius Miller Kentucky 5.33
319 SG Darius Johnson-Odom Marquette 5.33
320 PG Kwamain Mitchell St. Louis 5.30
321 SF J.J. Mann Belmont 5.27
322 PG Reggie Moore Washington St. 5.27
323 C Trevor Gruis South Dakota 5.25
324 SF Khris Middleton Texas A&M 5.22
325 PG Hernst Laroche New Mexico St. 5.19
326 SF Kyle Kuric Louisville 5.19
327 SF Ian Clark Belmont 5.18
328 PG Asthon Gibbs Pittsburgh 5.17
329 C Jared Berggren Wisconsin 5.16
330 SF Cor-J Cox Miss. Valley St. 5.15
331 PF Jamar Samuels Kansas St. 5.15
332 C Thomas van der Mars Portland 5.15
333 SG Daniel Mullings New Mexico St. 5.13
334 SF Chris Stephenson UNC-Asheville 5.11
335 C Brandon Davies BYU 5.10
336 PF Kim English Missouri 5.09
337 PG Pendarvis Williams Norfolk St. 5.07
338 SF Troy Daniels VCU 5.05
339 SF Latreze Mushatt Murray St. 5.05
340 C Adam Pegg Stetson 5.05
341 SG Scott Christopherson Iowa St. 5.03
342 PF Edward Daniel Murray St. 5.03
343 PG Trey Burke Michigan 5.03
344 C Erik Murphy Florida 5.02
345 PG Michael Caffrey Long Beach St. 5.01
346 SG Walter Offutt Ohio 5.00
347 PG D.J. Cooper Ohio 4.99
348 C P.J. Robinson Grambling St. 4.95
349 C Kadeem Coleby Louisiana-Lafayette 4.95
350 PF Donte Poole Murray St. 4.92
351 SG Sandro Carissimo Vermont 4.89
352 PF Jaquon Parker Cincinnati 4.88
353 SF Scott Wood North Carolina St. 4.88
354 C Anthony Lee Temple 4.87
355 SF Kelsey Barlow Purdue 4.87
356 PG Tyshawn Taylor Kansas 4.87
357 SG Nick Johnson Arizona 4.87
358 C Brandon Walters Siena 4.85
359 SG Brayden Carlson South Dakota St. 4.81
360 SF Toure’ Murry Wichita St. 4.78
361 SG Deividas Dulkys Florida St. 4.78
362 SG Gary Browne West Virginia 4.78
363 SG Ben Brust Wisconsin 4.77
364 SF Spencer DinWiddie Colorado 4.74
365 PF D.J. Byrd Purdue 4.73
366 SF Nick Kellogg Ohio 4.71
367 SG Stu Douglass Michigan 4.69
368 SG Dion Dixon Cincinnati 4.68
369 PF Ethan Wragge Creighton 4.67
370 C Garrett Green San Diego St. 4.67
371 PG Damier Pitts Marshall 4.67
372 SG Jimmy Williams North Florida 4.67
373 SG Mike McCall St. Louis 4.65
374 C Cody Ellis St. Louis 4.63
375 SG Sammy Zeglinksi Virginia 4.63
376 PF Tony Mitchell Alabama 4.63
377 PF Jonathan Holmes Texas 4.62
378 PG Jason Brickman LIU-Brooklyn 4.59
379 SF Chris Babb Iowa St. 4.58
380 C Gabe Knutson Lehigh 4.55
381 SG J.P. Kuhlman Davidson 4.53
382 SF Sir’Dominic Pointer St. John’s 4.52
383 SF William Buford Ohio St. 4.51
384 C Rakeem Christmas Syracuse 4.50
385 C Sam Dower Gonzaga 4.48
386 PF Kyle Casey Harvard 4.47
387 SG Gary Bell Gonzaga 4.47
388 SG Patrick Heckmann Boston College 4.47
389 PF Chad White South Dakota St. 4.45
390 PF Justin Jackson Cincinnati 4.45
391 C Taylor Broekhuis Air Force 4.45
392 PG Eric Mosley St. Bonaventure 4.41
393 SG Mackey McKnight Lehigh 4.39
394 PG Jesse Carr Colorado St. 4.39
395 PF Andre Walker Xavier 4.38
396 SF Michael Snaer Florida St. 4.37
397 SF Levi Randolph Alabama 4.37
398 PG Malcolm Grant Miami (FL) 4.37
399 C Ron Anderson South Florida 4.35
400 PG Oscar Bellfield UNLV 4.34
401 SG Eric Atkins Notre Dame 4.33
402 SG Elijah Johnson Kansas 4.33
403 SG Lamont Jones Iona 4.31
404 SF Will Sheehey Indiana 4.30
405 SG Mark Lyons Xavier 4.30
406 PG Keith Appling Michigan St. 4.30
407 SG Nick Faust Maryland 4.27
408 PG Brandyn Curry Harvard 4.24
409 SG Jordair Jett St. Louis 4.23
410 PF Luke Apfield Vermont 4.23
411 PG Demetric Williams Wichita St. 4.22
412 PG Craig Cusick BYU 4.21
413 SG Matt Pressey Missouri 4.21
414 PG Neil Watson Southern Miss 4.20
415 PG Mfon Udofia Georgia Tech 4.17
416 C Drew Windler Samford 4.15
417 PF Ben Smith Wichita St. 4.14
418 SG Andre Dawkins Duke 4.10
419 PF Johnny O’Bryant III LSU 4.08
420 PG Joe Jackson Memphis 4.07
421 PF Mike Bruesewitz Wisconsin 4.04
422 PF Wesley Witherspoon Memphis 4.03
423 SF Art Steward Montana 3.99
424 SF Tyrone Watson New Mexico St. 3.95
425 C Mike Hedgepeth Belmont 3.90
426 PG Anthony Collins South Florida 3.89
427 PF Christian Watford Indiana 3.88
428 SG Mike James Lamar 3.87
429 PG Darius Theus VCU 3.84
430 PG Casper Ware Long Beach St. 3.82
431 C Henry Sims Georgetown 3.80
432 PF Holden Greiner Lehigh 3.79
433 SG Antonio Barton Memphis 3.79
434 C LaMarcus Lowe Detroit 3.79
435 PG Matt Carlino BYU 3.77
436 SG Terrence Joyner Miss. Valley St. 3.76
437 C Ivan Aska Murray St. 3.67
438 PG Myck Kabongo Texas 3.65
439 SF Guy Edi Gonzaga 3.65
440 C Brandon Moore Florida Int. 3.65
441 C Connor Osborne Northern Colorado 3.65
442 PG Antoine Young Creighton 3.63
443 SG Brandon Thompson LIU-Brooklyn 3.62
444 PG Jabarie Hinds West Virginia 3.57
445 SF Ramone Moore Temple 3.57
446 C Kyle Tresnak Weber St. 3.55
447 C Tim Shelton San Diego St. 3.51
448 PF Tyler Olander Connecticut 3.48
449 C Harper Kemp California 3.42
450 PF Bandja Sy New Mexico St. 3.41
451 PG Martavious Irving Kansas St. 3.41
452 SG Trevor Lacey Alabama 3.41
453 PG Xavier Thames San Diego St. 3.41
454 SG Jason Calliste Detroit 3.41
455 C George Fant W. Kentucky 3.40
456 SF Connor Teahan Kansas 3.40
457 C Alex Oriakhi Connecticut 3.37
458 PG Nate Tomlinson Colorado 3.36
459 PG Juan Fernandez Temple 3.36
460 C Alphonso Leary Howard 3.35
461 SG Askia Booker Colorado 3.21
462 SG Charlton Kloof St. Bonaventure 3.16
463 C Austin Dufault Colorado 3.15
464 PG Tyler Thornton Duke 3.14
465 SG Ron Brandenberg VCU 3.13
466 PF Gilvydas Biruta Rutgers 3.08
467 PG Junior Cadougan Marquette 3.06
468 C Nick Wright Old Dominion 3.05
469 SG Verdell Jones Indiana 3.02
470 C Kenny Frease Xavier 3.02
471 SG C.J. Garner LIU-Brooklyn 3.02
472 PG Jontel Evans Virginia 3.02
473 SG Sam Thompson Ohio St. 3.01
474 C Jamil Wilson Marquette 3.00
475 PG Luke Loucks Florida St. 2.97
476 C Adam Waddell Wyoming 2.95
477 PF Bradford Burgess VCU 2.92
478 C Derek Selvig Montana 2.91
479 C Stan Brown Lamar 2.89
480 SF Tim Hardaway, Jr. Michigan 2.86
481 PF Travis Taylor Xavier 2.85
482 SF Tom Droney Davidson 2.85
483 C Caleb Patterson Missouri St. 2.85
484 C Jorge Brian Diaz Nebraska 2.85
485 C Brice Massamba UNLV 2.83
486 SF Aaron Brown West Virginia 2.83
487 PF Mathias Ward Montana 2.82
488 SF Brandon Davis Lamar 2.82
489 SG Derrick Gordon W. Kentucky 2.81
490 SG Darryl Bryant West Virginia 2.80
491 SG Jelan Kendrick Mississippi 2.77
492 SF Carlon Brown Colorado 2.76
493 PF Chris Czerapowicz Davidson 2.76
494 C Maurice Bolden Southern Miss 2.76
495 PF Akil Mitchell Virginia 2.74
496 PG Matthew Wright St. Bonaventure 2.74
497 PG Markel Starks Georgetown 2.70
498 SG Will Spralding Kansas St. 2.67
499 PG Four McGlynn Vermont 2.65
500 SF Le’Bryan Nash Oklahoma St. 2.62
501 PF John Adams Lehigh 2.61
502 C Xavier Gibson Florida St. 2.57
503 SF Michael Culpo LIU-Brooklyn 2.56
504 PF Okaro White Florida St. 2.52
505 PF Charlie Harper Lamar 2.50
506 PG Kevin Burwell Miss. Valley St. 2.46
507 SF Kyle Smith Iona 2.45
508 SF LaShay Page Southern Miss 2.45
509 SF Austin Rivers Duke 2.44
510 PF Taaj Ridley Iona 2.44
511 PG T.J. Price W. Kentucky 2.35
512 C Dennis Clifford Boston College 2.35
513 C Reggie Keely Ohio 2.34
514 C Matt Glass Vermont 2.30
515 PG Jamel Fuentes Norfolk St. 2.23
516 PF James McAdoo North Carolina 2.17
517 C Nick Jacobs Alabama 2.16
518 C Matt Morgan Winthrop 2.15
519 C Myles Walker Indiana St. 2.05
520 C Paul Crosby Miss. Valley St. 2.04
521 PF Eugene Phelps Long Beach St. 2.04
522 PG Marquis Teague Kentucky 2.02
523 SF Alex Dragicevich Notre Dame 2.02
524 PG Russ Smith Louisville 2.00
525 SF Chris McEachin Norfolk St. 2.00
526 SG Brent Arrington Miss. Valley St. 1.97
527 PG Chris Allen Iowa St. 1.97
528 PG R.J. Williams Loyola (MD) 1.97
529 PG A.J. Walton Baylor 1.96
530 PG Peyton Siva Louisville 1.96
531 C Shane Walker Loyola (MD) 1.96
532 SF Jordan Hamilton Lehigh 1.95
533 C Quinard Jackson UNC-Asheville 1.92
534 SF Todd Mayo Marquette 1.86
535 SF Jorden Page St. Mary’s (CA) 1.86
536 C Presano Bell South Carolina St. 1.85
537 SF Greg Whittington Georgetown 1.80
538 PF Tony Fiegen South Dakota St. 1.79
539 C Will Bell Colorado St. 1.76
540 PF Dominique Ferguson Florida Int. 1.68
541 SF Rod Odom Vanderbilt 1.66
542 C DeShawn Painter North Carolina St. 1.63
543 PF Greg Smith Colorado St. 1.57
544 C Rob Chubb Auburn 1.55
545 SF Rodney McCauley Norfolk St. 1.53
546 SF Victor Rudd South Florida 1.51
547 SF Malcolm Brogdon Virginia 1.47
548 C Steve Tchiengang Vanderbilt 1.44
549 PG Angel Rodriguez Kansas St. 1.43
550 PF Scott Martin Notre Dame 1.34
551 C Deniz Kilicli West Virginia 1.30
552 PF David Loubeau Texas A&M 1.28
553 SG Christian Webster Harvard 1.25
554 PF JayVaughn Pinkston Villanova 1.18
555 SF Chase Simon Detroit 1.13
556 SF Justin Drummond Loyola (MD) 1.12
557 PG Jamal Crook W. Kentucky 1.02
558 C Ivo Baltic Ohio 0.99
559 SF Wes Eikmeier Colorado St. 0.85
560 PF Amos Sturdivant Miss. Valley St. 0.73
561 SG Angelo Johnson Southern Miss 0.71
562 SF James Rahon San Diego St. 0.70
563 SG Shawn Stockton Montana 0.63
564 PF Da’Quan Cook St. Bonaventure 0.55
565 C Da’Shonte Riley Eastern Michigan 0.55
566 SG Brandon Smith California 0.37
567 SF Julien Lewis Texas 0.31
568 C Augustus Gilchrist South Florida 0.27
569 SF Kahlil McDonald W. Kentucky 0.23
570 PF A.J. Hardeman New Mexico 0.21
571 C Jordan Boots South Dakota -0.25
572 PF Marcos Tamares Norfolk St. -1.31
573 PF Nigel Snipes W. Kentucky -1.58
574 SG Brendan Bald Vermont -1.79
109.5  C  Fab Melo  Syracuse 7.85
 339.5  C  Festus Ezeli  Vanderbilt  5.05
 76.5  SG  Kevin Murphy  Tennessee Tech 8.40