Go Colangelo: My Thoughts on the Rudy Gay Trade

After months/years of talks, Rudy Gay has finally been traded.  The good old Memphis Grizzlies managed to dump this inefficient scorer on the once-again suspecting Bryan Colangelo-led Toronto Raptors.  Here’s what happened:

• MEM receives:
• PF Ed Davis (TOR-.191 WP48, .139 WS48, .124 EzPM48)
• SF Austin Daye (DET-.137 WP48, .124 WS48, .102 EzPM48)
• SF Tayshaun Prince (DET-.087 WP48, .074 WS48, .049 EzPM48)
• 2013 2nd round pick (TOR)

• TOR receives:
• SF Rudy Gay (MEM-.040 WP48, .085 WS48, .110 EzPM48)
• C Hamed Haddadi (MEM-(-.002) WP48, .040 Ws48, (-.122) EzPM48)

• DET receives:
• PG Jose Calderon (TOR-.234 WP48, .156 WS48, .162 EzPM48)

Except for the scrub Haddadi, Gay is probably the worst acquisition in this deal, as Prince is much cheaper.  This is not the first time in recent memory that the Raptors have been suckered into making a play for an inefficient volume scorer; look no further than the monster extensions for DeMar DeRozan and the epically terrible Andrea Bargnani.  Earlier today, I told a fellow basketball fan that, “The Pistons will make the play-offs if Andre Drummond plays twenty-five minutes a game unless Andrea Bargnani is traded.”  Well, let’s amend that to, “The Pistons will make the play-offs,” because Toronto has sabotaged its season and the Pistons have made a massive upgrade at the point guard position which was previously staffed by Will Bynum and Brandon Knight.

Quick bullet points:

• With the acquisition of a breaking-out Daye, the Grizzlies have massively upgraded at the 3.  Not only have they jettisoned the massively overrated Rudy, they replaced him with a guy who finally looks like he’s getting his act together at a new position.  Furthermore, Tayshaun Prince is not awful, so they upgrade their bench.
• The fact that they acquired those two means that they had to give up Jose Calderon though.  Normally, I would not approve, but Memphis already has this guy named Mike Conley, Jr.  Besides, trading away the UConn alum left a hole at small forward that would have been filled by either Tony Allen or Quincy Pondexter.  While both are good players, (although EzPM hates Quincy), Allen is really a guard and Pondexter is a shooter.  Daye is a better alternative.
• Ed Davis is a great third big man for Memphis.  This guy is young, on his rookie deal, and solid.  The trade of Marreese Speights left Darrell Arthur in that role, and neither Wins Produced nor EzPM is fond of Arthur at all.  Upgrade.
• Receiving Calderon is great for Detroit both short-term and long-term.  Right now, he is a very productive point guard who can lead the Pistons back to the postseason.  This summer, he’s an expiring contract.  Provided that Joe Dumars can do something relatively intelligent with the freed-up cap space, this is going to look really amazing.
• Calderon+Andre Drummond+Greg Monroe=nightmare.  Honestly, I think that this Detroit team could give anyone a run for its money in the play-offs, which it will reach if Lawrence Frank has any sense at all.  I think that they could even give the Heat some trouble as their three stars align with Miami’s greatest weaknesses (point guard and center).
• While it may look like Dumars gutted his team at the 3-which he sort of did-he did not do it hopelessly so.  I seem to remember that Kyle Singler was mostly a forward in college, and while Rodney Stuckey is hardly anyone’s idea of a good starter, he will not cost his team wins.  Furthermore, Brandon Knight might be able to slide to the 2, which is a position that better fits his play style.  Also of note is the fact that the historically productive Jonas Jerebko had a major shooting slump at the beginning of the year and as a result has played very little.  I suspect him to both play more and revert to form.
• All of us Wins Produced people thought that Toronto could make some noise in, or at least reach, the play-offs if they failed to do something stupid.  They failed to fail that.  (Sorry if that made no sense.)  Currently, Toronto has a trio of swingmen who are high-volume and inefficient (Gay, DeRozan, and Alan Anderson), plus another terrible wing who will probably play some (Linas Kleiza), plus the ever-present Bargnani.  They also managed to wreck their young, potentialy extremely imposing big man trio of Davis, Amir Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas.  If the big Italian ever leaves Canada, I will be thoroughly surprised.  If Colangelo ever does something remotely intelligent again, I will be shocked.  Did I mention that Landry Fields is struggling?  Train.  Wreck.

To rehash, the Pistons will make the play-offs, the Raptors will not, and I would also like to state that the Wizards will not finish with the worst record this year-I chalk many of their struggles to bad luck/strange slumps.  Thank you for reading, please comment, and please come back.

Time for Saer Sene to Serenade Some Scouts

In 2006, the Seattle Supersonics made a suspect move to select Mouhamed Saer Sene with the tenth overall pick.  Saer Sene, then a 20-year old Senegalese center, had only one year of professional experience-in Belgium no less-while Arutro’s hits of Renaldo Balkman, Rajon Rondo, and Paul Millsap.  All three would become great NBA players, although Balkman never received much of a chance.  Other solid players available included J.J. Redick, Thabo Sefolosha, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Lowry, Steve Novak, and Leon Powe.  What Sene did have going for him was a 7’8.5″ wingspan, but height alone does not make an NBA player.

What Sene never got was a shot at a real career.  To date, he has only played 260 NBA minutes in 47 NBA games, with no more than 169 minutes in a single season, his rookie season.  Those 162 minutes were absolutely awful, but his 62 in the following year were not, and the 29 the year after were ridiculously amazing.  All of these evaluations, though, suffer from extremely small sample size.  In 2006-07 and 2007-08, Sene also spent a somewhat substantial amount of time with the Idaho Stampede of the D-League, where he played fairly well if not exceptionally.  He was cut by Seattle in the middle of the 2008-09 season and was signed by the Knicks on April 9 after playing amazingly for ten games with the D-League’s Albuqerque Thunderbirds-he averaged nearly 17 rebounds, pace-adjusted, per 48 minutes!  Cut by the Knicks at the end of the season having only suited up for them once, he went off to Europe, and that may be the last most people on this side of the Atlantic will ever hear of him.

However, the draft bust did not stop playing basketball.  His first destination was Hyeres-Toulon of the French Pro A.  He shot a good 56% from the field, and his rebound rate was even higher than it was in Albuquerque.  Among centers with over 200 minutes played, only the immortal Nick Fazekas had a higher Win Score by a slim margin, and his sample size was only a third as large.  (Note that I am not being sarcastic about Fazekas; in 269 NBA minutes, he produced wins at a .320 clip per 48 according to Wins Produced, and was an absolute beast in college as well.)   Sene produced similar numbers the following season for BCM Gravelines Dunkerque, leading the league now that Fazekas was plying his trade with the D-League’s Reno Bighorns.  In fact, his rebound rate rose to a whopping 18.6 per 48.  In last season’s NBA, only Marcus Camby could exceed that for 1,000 minutes or more.

Now, the French league is not exactly made of world-beaters, so Sene traveled to Spain to play for Baloncesto Fuenlabrada, which in my opinion was a really awesome name, in the Europe’s best domestic league, the ACB.  His dominance didn’t stop in France, though, as the man was third in the league for center Win Score Per 40 Minutes among those with more than 200 minutes, behind only James Augustine and Boniface Ndong.  He has at it again this year as he is tied for fourth among centers behind Ognjen Kuzmic, Ante Tomic, and Lucas Nogueira.  Draft buffs will recognize Kuzmic and Nogueira’s names from recent draft discussions, as Kuzmic was the No. 52 pick last year courtesy of the Warriors and the Brazilian Nogueira is No. 37 on the www.draftexpress.com Top 100 Prospects list.  Tomic is a regular in Eurobasket competition and was selected 44th overall by Utah in 2008.

I honestly believe that Mouhamed Saer Sene should get another chance in the NBA.  He has paid his dues overseas, and he feel like he has the right to examine what he can do, as the only players better at him at his position are either well-recognized Eurostars or players who have received legitimate NBA attention.  NBA front offices love sinking further money and attention into sunk costs, but it seems to be working the other way here as they appear to have given up on him for good.  In fact, he essentially got a raw deal to start with because of the aforementioned grand total of 269 minutes.  It is definitely time for Saer Sene to serenade some scouts.  Thank you for reading, please comment, and please come back.

Defending the Indefensible: Marvin Williams over Chris Paul

In recent memory, a bad transaction move as perceived by many that NBA GM’s have made is the selection of Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, and Deron Williams over Chris Paul in the 2005 NBA Draft, particularly Marvin Williams.  Even Deron’s greatest defenders probably would not state that he is better than Paul after his self-destruction as a Net, Bogut is oft-injured, and Marvin Williams is often derided as a bust.  Well, as you can see from the title, I am not calling the selections of Bogut and Marvin bad moves.  While not “must-takes”, they were certainly not unfathomable.

On his old website arturogalletti.wordpress.com, the URL’s namesake has the initial calculations of his draft predictors, Yogi and Booboo.  Yogi and Booboo are two separate systems designed to predict an NBA prospect’s rookie year Wins Produced based on his college statistics, height, position, and age.  If they rich certain thresholds-I think it is .070 WP48 for one and .080 for the other-the system “picks” the player.  The formulas have a correlation with actual Wins Produced levels in the 40% range.  In a post from October 8, 2010, Arturo lists all the “picks” dating from 1997-2009 using Old-Style Wins Produced.  Considering that that was the formula used at the time, that is the formula that I am going to use.

Do you know who the picks were from that season?  They were, in order from greatest to least average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: Marvin Williams (.139), Paul (.122), Bogut (.121), Danny Granger (.115), and Nate Robinson (.106).  Robinson was a bust, but the others have all been dependable players.  Considering that Granger and Robinson were mid-round prospects, let’s leave them aside.

When you really look at it, the differences in projections between Williams, Paul, and Bogut are almost inconsequential, so that’s certainly not a factor.  Now, let’s move on.  Williams was a 6’9″ forward who had just been the sixth man on the national champion North Carolina Tar Heels and was 19, Paul, aged 20, was the star 6′ point guard on a Wake Forest Demon Deacons that was a 2 seed but upset by 11 seed West Virginia in the second round, and Bogut would turn 22 in November and was a 7′ center on a Utah team that rode a 6 seed to the Elite Eight.  As far as I can tell from his Wikipedia page-yes, I know-Bogut’s injury issues had not cropped up yet.  So far, I still cannot make much difference between the three, aside from the fact that Bogut is older.

Milwaukee had the first pick.  They really looked a team that would have a first round pick, as the often under-appreciated Dan Gadzuric was their only real player of note.  Really, I can’t make any difference between the three candidates.  Hindsight is weighing heavily on me taking Paul, but I probably still would have gone with Bogut because a) you need a decent center in order to win the championship and b) as good as his Wins Produced numbers are, I just can’t picture a team winning a title with Dan Gadzuric as its starting center.

Atlanta.  They have Josh Childress and Josh Smith, who look like their starting wings forever and all-time.  Josh Smith was really good when evaluated as a small forward for that rookie season, and he could have been like LeBron light, and I have written about Childress before.  Marvin Williams looks a little excessive, but this is why the move is defensible from a Wages of Wins standpoint:

1. Josh Smith is really a power forward.  Adjust his numbers to the 4 for that season, and his numbers become average, but his ultimate future was as a 4 because of his shotblocking prowess.  If he had acted like a 4, the man would have been a superstar.
2. Williams may have been a sixth man and Paul a star, but their Arturo numbers are virtually identical.
3. Williams is a year younger than Paul.  That gives him an extra year at a growth at an ever-so-slightly-accelerated rate.
4. Williams has/had a reputation as a good defender.

I still want to say that I would take Paul, as Childress and Smith can both play the 3, Marvin’s natural position, and because of our good friend hindsight.  But I just can’t do it.  It would have been so much waffling back and forth that I honestly have no idea which player I would have picked!  Regardless, if I’m Utah, I’m picking the other guy third.  It would not have been Deron Williams, as his stardom was unexpected if not particularly long-lasting.   Thank you for reading, please comment, and please come back.

P.S. I may do a mini-series of posts like this.  I don’t know; if I do though, you can count on Greg Oden vs. Kevin Durant being featured.

Funniest Joke I Ever Heard: Another Epic Mistake on the Part of ESPN and Sheridan Hoops

I’m back!  Sorry, it’s been so long; I’ve been having some serious motivation issues because of my somewhat depressingly low readership count.  As you may know, I like reading Patrick Minton at www.thenbageek.com, which is a part of the Wages of Wins Network.  Well, Patrick wrote a post about Pau Gasol today, decrying the media backlash behind Pau Gasol’s benching in favor of Earl Clark.  Clark’s on the hot streak of his career, he’s playing great, and Pau’s not; thus, I agree with Patrick.  No big deal, I do this all the time.

Patrick also likes to make fun of the people at www.sheridanhoops.com for their conventional views.  A certain James Park wrote an article entitled “Tweet of the Night: Jalen Rose” where he..referenced tweets from Jalen Rose and, as a bonus, Rose’s buddy Bill Simmons.  They are:

From Jalen: So let me get this right. Gasol won 2 chips playing alongside Bynum yet can’t play w/D12 who is faster than both of them?! #Confused#NBA.

And from Bill: If I were a Laker fan I’d be so pissed off right now. They won’t even get 50 cents on the dollar for Pau at this point. Well done Mike D.

Aside from Patrick’s point about the massive increase in Earl Clark’s trade value-an increase substantially larger than any hit the Spaniard’s market value took-I have anything to add.

I honestly don’t understand why Jalen Rose is a trusted analyst considering that THE MAN GREATLY BENEFITED FROM PLAYING BAD BASKETBALL, NAMELY THE ART OF VOLUME SCORING!!!

Of late, my favorite statistics have been a) Wins Produced, b) EzPM, if I manually eliminate the Usage adjustment, c) Estimated Impact, and d) Win Shares.  EzPM and Estimated Impact are not publically available for any portion of Jalen Rose’s career as far as I can tell, but Wins Produced is available since 2000 and Win Shares is available for basically the entire history of the NBA.

Well, www.basketball-reference.com has player salaries listed on its website for each season of their career.  Over the course of his NBA life, Jalen Rose made $102,438,250, an average of roughly $7,850,000 a year for thirteen seasons.  That is a boatload of money, even when you consider that a lot of that is lost as taxes.  According to Win Shares, if you value a win at $1.7 million as Arturo Galletti graciously calculated as the average value a couple years ago, do you know how much of that Jalen Rose actually earned?

He earned exactly $80,240,000 of it, also known as only 78.33% of what he actually made.

Remember that Win Shares is a bit of a High Usage apologist-look at Allen Iverson’s statistics for proof.  Over the course of Jalen Rose’s career, he averaged 1.21 Points Per Shot, which is my favorite “mini-metric” for evaluating scoring prowess, which is not a considerable amount above average.  According to Wins Produced, Jalen Rose produced a measly 14 wins or so in the final seven seasons of his career (which is all that can be found at The NBA Geek), which equals $23,800,000 in worth.  Over that span, the man made more than that in any combination of three seasons, or any two of his final four.  His valuation looks even worse when you consider something pretty major.

I DIDN’T ADJUST FOR INFLATION.  HOW ABOUT THEM APPLES?

Yeah, Jalen Rose is a bit of a microcosm of basketball’s major problem of his generation, a greater focus on points per game than points per shot.  Even PER thought he was an average player; if you put it on an exponential scale look I have done with PERrate, Jalen’s best season would have produced only .141 PERwins per 48 minutes, and his career average would have been .104 on that scale.  Furthermore, a truly mathematical glance would scale this done further, as the nature of exponentiality dictates that the distances between values increase the farther to the right of the scale you go, meaning that players at the high end have more positive value than those on the low end have detrimental value.  In other words, this examination is skewed in favor of above-average players by nature, so Jalen’s numbers would be even less!

ESPN claims to give a darn about statistics, but it only cares about the “E” that stands for entertainment.  I still don’t understand how Jalen Rose is such a vaunted analyst there, but I can be a stubborn mule myself.  Thank you for readng, please comment, and please come back.